Strategy Memo: Obama Departs Again
President Obama, after taking care of some business yesterday, dives back into vacation mode today as he heads to Camp David. He'll remain there through Sunday. When he returns, his September schedule is quite busy. Next wee includes his first 9/11 anniversary; later this month he'll address the AFL-CIO, attend the UN General Assembly meeting, and host the G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh. Reports indicate today that somewhere at the front end, he may make a major speech to reframe the health care debate as well.
Congress returns from August recess next week, and two vacancies remain -- NY-23 (Rep. John McHugh, R, has not yet been confirmed by the Senate as secretary of the Army) and CA-10 (former Rep. Ellen Tauscher, D, was appointed to a position in the State Department), though Tauscher's replacement may have been chosen last night.
In the special election to fill the vacant seat in California's 10th Congressional District, no candidate received 50% in the multi-party primary, so a runoff will be held Nov. 3 for the leading vote getters from each party. Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D), who received 26%, will face attorney David Harmer (R), who won 21%, as well as three minor party candidates with no primary opposition. Garamendi is expected to win easily, as the district leans heavily Democratic -- Tauscher won with at least two-thirds of the vote in the last four elections, and Obama won 65% here in 2008.
**President Obama
*Politico reports that Obama "is considering detailing his health-care demands in a major speech as soon as next week" when Congress returns. And as he lists demands, he "has no plans to insist on" on the public option. David Axelrod tells Politico: "We're entering a new season. It's time to synthesize and harmonize these strands and get this done. We're confident that we can do that. But obviously it is a different phase. We're going to approach it in a different way. The president is going to be very active."
*AP has similar reporting: "Faced with falling approval ratings and increasingly impatient with Senate negotiations, Obama is considering a speech in the next week or so in which he would be 'more prescriptive' about what he feels Congress must include in a health bill." A hint of the tone: Axelrod "suggested" that Sens. Chuck Grassley and Mike Enzi "have not bargained in good faith.""
*New York Times: "Even after the tough town-hall-style meetings, unrelenting Republican assaults and a steady stream of questions from anxious voters, interviews with more than a dozen Blue Dogs and their top aides indicate that many of the lawmakers still believe approval of some form of health care plan is achievable and far preferable to not acting at all."
*The Boston Globe, meanwhile, dives into "reconciliation," which they say is emerging as a likely option for passing health care.
*The L.A. Times claims, "Some of the most vociferous opposition to the proposals before the House and Senate comes from residents of rural states that could benefit most if the present system is revamped." More: "In addition, both in the West and South, such states tend to set higher thresholds for Medicaid eligibility, leaving few options for low-income earners who can't afford individual insurance coverage. Moreover, residents of rural states often have lower incomes than those in other parts of the country. It's more difficult to find healthcare providers. And they have little, if any, choice in the private insurance market, which is typically dominated by one or two companies in a region."
*Washington Post's Dan Balz: "But August did nothing to strengthen Obama's standing with the public. If anything, there was further erosion. Rhetoric alone can't do much about that for the time being, given all the issues now confronting Obama." Balz even jokes, what happened to that "reset" button.
*The Washington Times reports that former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is backing Eric Holder's push to investigate potential excessive interrogations. "We worked very hard to establish ground rules and parameters about how to deal with terrorists," he said. "And if people go beyond that, I think it is legitimate to question and examine that conduct to ensure people are held accountable for their actions, even if it's action in prosecuting the war on terror."
**Campaign Stuff
*Gallup takes a look at what the modern American electorate looks like. Here's what they found: "Conservative white Democrats and moderate/liberal white Republicans are relatively rare creatures in the contemporary American political environment; 6% of Americans meet the former definition, and 11% the latter. Almost half of Americans, on the other hand, fit into the more conventional segments of moderate/liberal white Democrats or conservative white Republicans."
*J-Mart reports that Mitt Romney is kicking his '12 posturing into high gear this fall. "From returning to a key early primary state to delivering an address before a social conservative conference and reuniting with members of his campaign-in-waiting, Romney is scheduled to spend a good deal of his September in a fashion befitting a man very much interested in running for president."
*CA-10 special: "It may be premature for Lt. Gov. John Garamendi to start printing new business cards, but he could be placing an order for them soon. The well-known 64-year-old lawmaker and rancher from Walnut Grove triumphed over his Democratic competitors in Tuesday's special 10th Congressional District primary," Contra Costa Times reports.
You can check out the full results, including by county, here.
*MA Sen: Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley has told confidants she plans to run for Ted Kennedy's seat whether or not a Kennedy runs, and yesterday seemed to back that up. "Coakley has been quietly putting together her probable Senate campaign over the past year, but has yet to officially announce. Yesterday's move - a Coakley representative picked up the documents from the secretary of state's office in the morning - is a clear signal she intends to jump in," Boston Globe reports.
The Globe also looks at potential Republican candidates. The maybes include former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, former U.S. attorney Michael Sullivan, former White House chief of staff Andrew Card, and state Senator Scott Brown. Former acting Gov. Jane Swift, who had been thinking about it, "is now leaning against it."
Boston Herald reports Coakley spent "$24,000 from her state campaign account on consultants in the past two months even though she faces no challengers for the 2010 attorney general race."
*AR Sen: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) received another GOP challenger yesterday in state Sen. Gilbert Baker. "Baker's decision comes a week after a poll was released by a Democratic firm that showed Baker beating Lincoln in a hypothetical head-to-head race. That poll by the North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling also showed Lincoln with just a 36 percent approval rating, with 44 percent of voters disapproving of the job she's doing," Roll Call reports.
NRSC spokesperson Amber Wilkerson released the following statement in response to Baker's entrance: "Today's announcement by Gilbert Baker is another indication that Blanche Lincoln is facing an uphill battle in her quest for re-election in 2010. The growing field of Republican and Democrat challengers in Arkansas demonstrates Lincoln's vulnerability, thanks in great part to her record in support of the Obama tax and spend agenda, including the massive stimulus bill, pork-laden omnibus, and bloated budget."
**Strategy Memo Note: With Obama and Congress gone the rest of the week, Strategy Memo will take the last two days of August recess off as well. Join us next week at the same Strat Memo time, same Strat Memo place.
--Kyle Trygstad and Mike Memoli



