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« Ohio Gov Poll: Strickland Numbers Stabilize | Blog Home Page | Obama's 'Full Ginbsurg' An Effort To Control Debate »

Strategy Memo: Election in NYC

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Today, President Obama's itinerary has him playing to core Democratic interests. He leaves Washington this morning and makes his first stop in Warren, Ohio, where he'll hold a roundtable with auto workers focused on the economy. Then he travels to Pittsburgh, where he'll address the AFL-CIO Convention. He just gave a feisty speech to an AFL-CIO crowd on Labor Day. He ends his day by following through on a promise to support newly Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter, at a fundraiser in Philadelphia. The president returns to Washington tonight.

On health care, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) is expected to introduce his bill into committee today, with mark up scheduled to begin next week. On the other side of the Capitol, House Democratic leaders are holding a health care forum to "highlight the urgent need for comprehensive health insurance reform." House GOP Conference vice chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) is holding a press conference "to highlight how current health care reform will harm children with disabilities."

Also today, voters are voting! In New York, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, now an independent, is on the Republican ballot as he seeks a third term; city Comptroller Bill Thompson will likely emerge as the Democratic nominee. Bloomberg has consistently lead in the polls; today, more focus is on downballot primary races in the city.

And, because an election in New Hampshire is always more important, we note a primary for mayor in Manchester. The top two vote-getters will face off in November, looking to succeed Frank Guinta, who is leaving the mayor's office to challenge Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) in the first Congressional District race.

**President Obama
*In an interview with Bloomberg, Obama said job losses are "bottoming out" and the U.S. economy looks to be growing again even as he warned against cutting off government aid "so soon that the recovery doesn't take flight." The Bloomberg story also notes that, "Obama told CNBC television in a separate interview that he had a 'strong inclination' against a second stimulus package on top of the $787 billion program passed by Congress in February."

*Meanwhile, an ABC/Washington Post poll shows that "nearly six in 10 Americans are now concerned about job or pay losses in the coming months, little changed since February, and there has been no increase in the percentage who see the federal government's stimulus efforts as having an impact, even as the pace of layoffs has eased in recent months. And there is lukewarm public confidence that the government is enacting measures to stave off another financial crisis."

*"In particularly blunt language," Obama told CEOs yesterday at his Federal Hall speech "that change could and should begin with their own paychecks - regardless of any new regulations," the Daily News reports.

Washington Times: "Despite continued populist fury directed at Wall Street a year after the market meltdown, President Obama is fighting a strong headwind as he pushes for tougher regulation of the financial services industry."

*Breaking just now, we learn that Vice President Biden has arrived in Iraq, his third trip this year.

*Obama will do the "Full Ginsburg," appearing on Sunday shows on ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN and Univision this weekend.

*Awesome: Obama apparently called Kanye West a "jackass" in what was supposed to be an off-the-record moment during an interview yesterday.

*The AFL-CIO will approve a resolution to endorse a public option today before Obama's speech, the Times reports.

*Check out the reaction of a local GOP official in Wilson's district. "The longer this story stays alive, the better it is for the conservative point of view. It means the Democrats aren't talking about health care and moving the ball forward. They're giving Wilson a ton of traction."

**Health Care
*Democrats will indeed bring forth a bill to reprimand Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) for his "You lie!" outburst last week, which "helped escalate an issue that has been on a slow burn for weeks, especially among African Americans. ... Led by their most senior black lawmakers, House Democrats decided Monday evening to hold the vote. The decision risks escalating the partisan warfare that has erupted since Wilson's outburst," Washington Post reports.

*"Six key senators -- three Republicans and three Democrats -- continued to work behind closed doors Monday to fashion a compromise on health care reform that could get the 60 votes necessary to pass out of the chamber." One of the hot topics of discussion, according to Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) was how to deal with illegal immigrants, Politics Daily reports.

*Washington Post reports that after Baucus "spoke optimistically of gaining bipartisan backing, lawmakers continued to haggle over a question at the heart of the debate: How can the government force people to buy insurance without imposing a huge new financial burden on millions of middle-class Americans? Even within his own party, Baucus confronted a fresh wave of concern about affordability. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) declared himself dissatisfied with the chairman's plan, which, like other congressional reform proposals, would require every American to buy health insurance by 2013."

WSJ reports that Baucus "has worked for months to craft a bill capable of attracting bipartisan support. His legislation would expand coverage to tens of millions of Americans but leave out a public health-insurance option supported by liberals. Sen. Baucus has argued that steering the legislation toward the political center is the best strategy for ensuring passage on the Senate floor. But several Senate Democrats left a briefing with the chairman Monday night saying they would seek changes."

**Campaign Stuff
*Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) is criticizing Specter for cutting his workday short to raise money, PA2010.com notes.

*The New York Post reported Monday that 2000 Senate candidate Rick Lazio will formally launch his gubernatorial bid next week, with part of the news being that he apparently won't wait for Rudy Giuliani to make up his mind. Some have been thinking Giuliani should challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), but the mayor has no interest in the Senate, Cillizza reports.

*The Union Leader reports that we may soon have a third Republican candidate for Senate in New Hampshire: RNC committee member Sean Mahoney.

*Boston Herald reports that Celtics part-owner Stephen Pagliuca is "seriously considering" a run for Senate, and could make an announcement today. He's also managing director at Bain Capital, and could self-finance.

*A body slam for Dodd? The Hill: "World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) CEO Linda McMahon appears primed to run for Senate in Connecticut and should make an announcement very soon, according to sources with knowledge of her deliberations."

Also, a new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll finds Dodd trailing ex-Rep. Simmons by 4 points.

*AP: "With the clock running on a shortened election calendar, the campaign to succeed Sen. Edward Kennedy has become notable for who's not running, instead of who is." Those who've said no: Vicki Kennedy (wife), Joseph Kennedy (nephew), ex-Rep. Martin Meehan, ex-WH chief of staff Andrew Card, and Reps. John Tierney and Ed Markey. "So far, the field includes an attorney general not three years into her first statewide term, a state senator and a town selectman. Former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling has talked about running, and Stephen Pagliuca, co-owner of the Boston Celtics, is said to be weighing a campaign."

And this, from The Dartmouth: "Rep. Michael Capuano '73, D-Mass., will formally announce whether he will enter the race for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the late Edward Kennedy this week, according to Alison Mills, Capuano's press secretary."

*MD Gov: "Add Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. to the list of those who feel they can't wait for Bob Ehrlich to decide if he's running for governor again," The Sun reports.

*PA Gov: Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) announced his candidacy, the Post-Gazette reports.

*The RNC has invited Tampa to bid to host the 2012 GOP convention, the St. Pete Times reports.

--Kyle Trygstad and Mike Memoli

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