GOP Pollster Finds N.J. Race Near Tipping Point
The Republican pollster Neighborhood Research again finds a closer gubernatorial race in New Jersey than other surveys have found, but the internals indicate that Gov. Jon Corzine (D) is slipping as election day draws nearer.
General Election Matchup
Christie 37 (unch from last poll, 8/21)
Corzine 33 (-2)
Daggett 8 (+2)
Undecided 22
Among so-called "definite voters," Christie's lead stretches to 7 points, 40-33, with 7 percent for Daggett and 20 percent undecided.
"While the numbers indicate little movement in the ballot test (although what movement exists is towards Christie), there is much more under the surface," pollster Rick Shaftan writes in the polling memo. "Voters are starting to tune out Governor Corzine and with negatives close to 50%, the Christie message of 'how can I do any worse' is starting to resonate with voters."
The former U.S. attorney's favorable numbers have jumped 9 points, from a 19/26 split to a positive 28/26 split. Corzine's favorable number remains low at 21 percent, while his unfavorables are up 2 points, to 48 percent.
"Christie's turned the corner and Corzine has seven days to stop what is going to become an avalanche," pollster Rick Shaftan told RCP today. Shaftan ran the campaign of Christie's primary challenger, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan (R).
You can read more of Shaftan's analysis, including an interesting take on the Obama factor, after the jump.
CONCLUSIONS1. Corzine has a limited window to win back voters who are starting to harden in their feelings towards him. He has yet to tell voters what he has done as Governor and why he deserves another term in office.
2. Corzine's negative attacks on Christie have produced nothing.
3. Christie needs to firm up his support in Northwest New Jersey, just as Corzine needs to firm up his Central New Jersey base.
4. Strong generic ballot numbers for Republicans with white ethnic voters could become a real problem for Democrats if Christie opens up a lead and Democratic GOTV operations fall apart.
5. Obama is not the silver bullet that will put away the race for Corzine. While Corzine wins Obama favorables 60-10 (8 for Daggett), Christie holds a much more polarizing 75-3 edge among the growing pool of Obama unfavorables. Bringing Obama in at the end could energize anti-Obama voters more than pro-Obama ones.
6. Daggett's ads were cute and gave him a brief boost in the polls, but without a quick and effective follow-up, he will rapidly move towards becoming another asterisk in a book of election returns.
Here's a note on methodology:
The data below is from a survey of 347 registered voters who said their chances of voting in the November election were "definite" or "very likely." Surveys were completed between September 14th and 17th from live operators from our facility in Franklin, New Jersey. The data is compared with 319 responses completed between August 12th and 21st. The theoretical margin of error is +/- 5.3% at a 95% confidence level. 13 of these surveys were completed in Spanish.