Strategy Memo: Who's In The Driver's Seat?
Good morning, Washington. Today, President Obama again has a rather low-key day when it comes to selling his health care plan. The highlight of the schedule is an event to honor 2008 Sprint Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson. He and other NASCAR racers will be on the South Lawn, as will Jimmie Johnson's #48 Chevy. He will hold a conference call tonight with "faith leaders" to talk health reform, however.
Vice President Biden, meanwhile, heads to Florida for a Recovery Act-related event on education. He's also raising money at separate events for Reps. Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson in Orlando.
An NBC News poll released last night found Obama's job approval at 51%. This lowers Obama's RCP Average approval to 52.0% -- his lowest mark since taking office.
Less than three months away from the elections, Republicans aren't just leading the two governor races this year -- so far they're dominating. Bob McDonnell leads in Virginia by 12.0 points in the RCP Average, and Chris Christie is up in New Jersey by 11.3 points. What impact would a GOP sweep in 2009 have on the outcome of the 2010 midterms?
**Health Care
*NBC News poll: Just 41% approve of Obama's handling of the health care issue, just 36% say his efforts to reform health care are a good idea, and 24% say health care quality will improve as a result. Still, 60% think the system needs a "complete overhaul" or "major reform."
*L.A. Times breaks down what the administration said two months ago and what it said over the weekend regarding the public option.
*"Given hardening Republican opposition to Congressional health care proposals, Democrats now say they see little chance of the minority's cooperation in approving any overhaul, and are increasingly focused on drawing support for a final plan from within their own ranks," the New York Times reports. "The Republican leadership has made a strategic decision that defeating President Obama's health care proposal is more important for their political goals than solving the health insurance problems that Americans face every day," Rahm Emanuel says.
*AP points out, "frustrated liberals have a question for President Barack Obama and Democratic lawmakers: Isn't it time the other guys gave a little ground on health care? What's the point of a bipartisan bill, they ask, if we're making all the concessions?"
If Dems do go it alone without worrying what Republicans would like to see in the bill, what will be the political fallout next year? Or in 2012?
*"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is having a busy August recess ... And there will be no letup when the Senate reconvenes in three weeks, confronting Mr. Reid with intense pressure to pass a health-care bill," WSJ reports. "With House leaders closer to a health-care deal than Senate leaders, Mr. Reid's success or failure corralling votes when Congress reconvenes next month will be crucial to the effort to overhaul the country's health-care system."
*"Critics of President Obama's health-care overhaul are zeroing in on his senior adviser David Axelrod, whose former partners at a Chicago-based firm are the beneficiaries of huge ad buys--now at $24 million and counting--by White House allies in the reform fight," Politico reports.
*Whoops. "A union representing postal supervisors, managers and postmasters wants President Obama to reconsider his recent comments that compared the Postal Service with UPS and FedEx," the Post reports.
**President Obama
*An AP Fact Check finds that, despite the White House's insistence that it hasn't shifted its rhetoric on the public option, there has been some deviation from its prior line.
*New York Times has more details on Bill Clinton's North Korea trip based on interviews with multiple officials. "For all the billions of dollars a year that the United States spends on intelligence gathering about mysterious and unpredictable countries like North Korea, it took just 20 hours on the ground in Pyongyang by a former president to give the Obama administration its first detailed look into a nuclear-armed nation that looms as one of its greatest foreign threats."
The story includes the news that envoys from the rogue nation will meet with Gov. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.).
*The White House seemed to accept the fact that people are bringing guns to protests where the president is speaking, the Post reports. Robert Gibbs: "There are laws that govern firearms that are done state or locally. Those laws don't change when the president comes to your state or locality."
*ABC: The White House has arranged for President Obama to appear as a guest of conservative radio host Michael Smerconish, who endorsed him, to answer questions on health reform. The show will be broadcast "from the White House Diplomatic Room alongside the president. It's the first time a radio broadcast will originate from the White House since President Obama took office in January."
*Joe Biden is getting inducted into the Little League Museum Hall of Excellence. "Mr. Biden enjoyed his opportunity to play Little League as a child and, in part, those experiences prompted him to pursue public service as his way of giving back," the museum says.
**State of The Parties
*The Wall Street Journal reports from the Right Online gathering, where conservative online activists gathered last week in the shadow of the liberal Netroots Nation Summit. "That's a shift, these activists say, from recent years of GOP strategy, where the shaping of the party's message has been largely top-down, with the message coming from party leaders. Now, the message is bubbling up more from groups of online activists." "People are saying we're not hearing encouraging or inspiring messages from our leaders in Washington," said Erik Telford, Americans for Prosperity's director of online strategy. "We need to rebuild from the ground up."
*Adam Nagourney has a great piece on Democrats' new strength in the West. "Even party leaders say it is far too early to declare the West the New East," he cautions. "Western Democrats have enjoyed stunning successes over the last three years," said Harry Reid. "But this is no time to rest on our laurels. That is why we are here in Denver."
**Campaign Stuff
*VA Gov: "Wealthy friends and accommodating campaign finance laws have allowed the two men running for governor of Virginia to compile tens of thousands of dollars from individual donors in what is expected to be the most expensive race in the state's history," Washington Post reports.
*Chris Christie said his failure to report a lone to a former coworker in the U.S. Attorney's office was an honest oversight, Gannett reports. "I'm not perfect and I'm not going to be. When I make a mistake, I admit it. I made a mistake by not putting that on the disclosure form," Christie said.
*FL Gov: A Quinnipiac survey out this morning finds Republican Bill McCollum up 38% to 34% over Democrat Alex Sink, a reversal of its June poll. "The movement is due almost exclusively to a big swing among Independents," RCP reports. Gov. Charlie Crist also continues to hold a strong lead in the Senate primary.
*Meanwhile, Crist's search for a replacement for Mel Martinez continues. He "is planning to interview state Rep. Jennifer Carroll and University of North Florida President John Delaney in Jacksonville" today, the Miami Herald reports. "Carroll is the first woman to be considered to fill the rest of U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez's term. She was also the first black Republican elected to the Legislature and was viewed as a potential running mate for Crist in 2006."
*KY Sen: A new SurveyUSA poll finds Trey Grayson leading Rand Paul 37% to 26% in the GOP primary, and Dan Mongiardo leading Jack Conway 39% to 31% in the Dem primary.
*IL-10: The race to fill the seat of Rep. Mark Kirk (R), who's running for Senate, just got a little more crowded, as moderate state Rep. Beth Coulson is set to enter, Roll Call reports.
**Remembering Robert Novak
*Chicago Sun-Times editorial board
*David Broder
*Lou Cannon
--Mike Memoli and Kyle Trygstad



