NJ Gov: GOP Poll Shows Race Tightening
Amid sustained attacks from Democrats over ties to Karl Rove and a personal loan to a former colleague, Chris Christie's lead appears to be shrinking. A poll conducted by Rick Shaftan, a consultant to Christie's former primary opponent, shows that Gov. Jon Corzine has pulled to within just two points.
General Election Matchup
Christie 37
Corzine 35
Daggett 6
The survey of 319 likely voters was conducted by Neighborhood Research, and first reported on by PolitickerNJ.com. It was conducted from August 12-21, just as a House Committee's interview with Rove that included talk of discussions with Christie surfaced. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percent.
Among a smaller sample of so-called "definite voters," Christie leads 39-36, with Daggett polling at 6. That sample size was 275.
Favorability Ratings
Corzine 23 / 46
Christie 20 / 27
Daggett 2 / 1
Obama 47 / 28
Pelosi 16 / 41
Shaftan told RCP today that where Corzine's base had been unmotivated all year, he's starting to see a dampening in enthusiasm among Republican voters now, too, creating the scenario for a very low-turnout race. With Christie's unfavorables rising, he said the campaign should reconsider its approach.
"Every day he's not talking about issues and it's just a personality war, that's never good for a Republican," Shaftan said. "[Voters] don't like Corzine. They don't want him as governor. But they're looking at Christie and asking, 'Is he any different?' He's really not making the case that he is different."
There's a particular opening on health care, he said, calling it the hottest issue right now for the GOP base. "They're excited about being political, and presumably all these people should be Christie voters," he said. But the Christie campaign seems reluctant to target President Obama, even as his favorable numbers have dropped in the Garden State. "They're running a two-month old strategy: they still think Obama's loved, and they still think they're 16 points up."
Shaftan found that many undecideds tended to be more liberal, and that as the race goes on they may return to the Democratic column. That liberal movement back to the Corzine column may be hastened by the recent intrusion of Rove to the race.
"It isn't significant in terms of what he did. It just gets words like Rove, Republican and Bush back in the conversation again," he said. "When Christie is seen as a partisan, it forces Democrats to be partisan."
Shaftan also predicted that Christie's focus on suburban and urban areas, and his outreach to liberal-leaning constituency groups will ultimately prove futile, likening it to Lucy and Charlie Brown with the football. Christie would be better served spending more time shoring up support in traditional Republican strongholds. "You've got to come out of these counties with 70 to 75 percent of the vote," he said.
Much in the most recent round of public polling had shown Christie with a double-digit lead, but Shaftan anticipates that future surveys will show numbers closer to his.