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Strategy Memo: Audacity Of Hops

Two new polls offer more bad news for the Obama administration in the midst of its health care fight. But what's the biggest story out of the White House today? The presidential "beer summit" with Skip Gates and the Cambridge police officer who arrested him. It happens tonight at 6, with Red Stripe, Blue Moon and Bud Light the drink of choice for the participants. Also today, President Obama meets with President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo of the Philippines. And he'll have separate sessions with Treasury Secretary Geithner and Vice President Biden.

The House will likely leave for five weeks after the close of business tomorrow without consensus on a health care bill and certainly without a vote on one, though a deal between Democratic leaders and Blue Dogs showed some progress is being made. Today, the House will vote on the Department of Defense Appropriations Act.

The Senate, having its own trouble with health care, will begin considering the Highway Trust Fund and Agriculture Appropriations bills. At 1:00 p.m., members of the House and Senate will hold a committee hearing on cap-and-trade in the Senate Environment and Public Works hearing room.

**Health Care
*"President Obama's ability to shape the debate on health care appears to be eroding as opponents aggressively portray his overhaul plan as a government takeover that could limit Americans' ability to choose their doctors and course of treatment, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll."

*"Support for President Barack Obama's health-care effort has declined over the past five weeks, particularly among those who already have insurance, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found, amid prolonged debate over costs and quality of care."

*The Hill: "A House leadership deal with Blue Dogs and an aggressive marketing push by Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) shifted the healthcare debate sharply toward centrist positions Wednesday, sparking threats of rebellion from the left. The day's events left the Senate Finance Committee's emergent bill as the most viable vehicle on Capitol Hill, but also made clear that House Democrats are still riven by bitter disagreements. Democrats postponed a floor vote until after the August recess, meeting a top demand of centrist Blue Dogs."

*Washington Post: "As Senate conservatives pressured their Republican colleagues to back away from the emerging finance panel's package, House Democratic leaders tried to tamp down an uprising from liberals who complained that the plan's central plank -- a government-financed "public option" for insurance -- had been watered down by the deal with party moderates."

*Politics Daily: "The White House and the congressional Democratic leadership are too committed to passing a bill to ever admit defeat. So whatever ungainly, mud-caked mess finally emerges from the legislative quagmire, Obama and Company are going to face an irresistible temptation to declare victory and call it health care reform."

*USA Today: "Lawmakers who count pharmaceutical companies among their biggest contributors lead the opposition to a health care proposal that would cut costs by allowing generic drugs to compete sooner with pricey biotechnology drugs, campaign-finance records show."

**President Obama
*Chuck Todd, on "Morning Joe", with another take on the NBC/WSJ poll: "He is still the most popular politician in the country. It's just that he is now being judged by the public as just a politician."

*AP headline: "'Beer summit' distracts Obama from health care." Obama "must once again hit the pause button in his drive to overhaul health care to revisit the racially charged issue that stole the spotlight from his top legislative priority -- the arrest of his Harvard professor friend."

*A Democratic strategist tells "The Fix" that this Gates incident "chipped away at the air of reasonableness and even infallibility that surrounds the President."

*Well that's all that matters. Roanoke Times, on yesterday's health care event in Bristol: "Several of the Kroger employees said they walked in with reservations about Obama's plans to change health care, but left feeling like they had a new understanding of the plan."

*She's out of debt. What will Hillary do with $3 million in the bank? CBS: "Clinton does have a relatively large staff - eight people - but that doesn't mean she's gearing up for a campaign, which doesn't make much since considering her current position. She has said pointedly that she is "out of politics" and that she is not considering a run for office."

**Congress
*Remember the EFCA? CongressDaily reports, "Senate efforts to compromise on a watered-down version of the Employee Free Choice Act have been put firmly on the chamber's back burner -- perhaps for the rest of the year -- as senators, aides and lobbyists focus on health care and other legislation, participants said."

**Campaign Stuff
*Tim Pawlenty gets an AP profile as he builds a national profile. The story notes that "the two-term fiscal and social conservative is taking necessary steps toward a possible presidential bid," while he says he's focused only on the party. But: "his track record of GOP building in Minnesota is less than stellar. Republicans have lost ground in every election since he became governor in 2003. He is the sole statewide GOP officeholder and his party controls its fewest legislative seats since 1992. Pawlenty himself narrowly survived a three-way election contest to win his second term."

*NRCC: In a pen-n-pad session with reporters yesterday on Capitol Hill, NRCC chair Pete Sessions (Texas) announced that the committee would be making its first two endorsements of the 2009-'10 election cycle: Adam Kinzinger in IL-11 and Dennis Ross in FL-12. "These are candidates who actually, even though it's slightly early in this season, have gone and performed at such a high level that we are sending a direct signal back to not only that campaign but also to those areas -- remembering, we got to go win. And it does not do us any good to wait, wait, wait and not get behind a candidate and give them our full support," said Sessions.

(Speaking of Sessions, Politico has a story today on a questionable earmark the congressman requested last year.)

*TX Gov: "The Republican race for governor devolved into a schoolyard taunt of who should be the quitter Wednesday, after Kay Bailey Hutchison said that she would resign her Senate seat within four months to challenge Rick Perry full time...Hutchison said she was basically forced to make the decision to resign because Perry refused to realize that seeking 15 years in the governor's office was too much," Dallas Morning News reports.

*UT Sen/Gov: "Rep. Jim Matheson, seen as the Democratic front-runner if he chose to run for governor or the U.S. Senate next year, announced Wednesday that he instead will seek a sixth House term in 2010," Salt Lake Tribune reports.

*LA Sen: Perhaps the best lede ever for a story on a Senate race: "It's been a tough week for porn actress Stormy Daniels -- complete with a domestic violence charge and a car explosion -- as she continues to mull a U.S. Senate bid that could make life uncomfortable for incumbent first-term Louisiana Republican David Vitter, still recovering from a sex scandal," AP reports.

*In the wake of corruption busts in New Jersey, two Democrats in the state Assembly "are using the turn of events to recount a controversial episode that they hope will take some luster off" Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie, PolitickerNJ.com reports.

--Mike Memoli and Kyle Trygstad