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Strategy Memo: Virginia Is For Voters

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Good stormy morning, Washington. Today at the White House, President Obama will speak about restoring "paygo" rules to coincide with any new tax or entitlement policies. The announcement comes as lawmakers prepare to announce details of health care legislation, and as polls show Americans disapprove of the administration's spending. Later, Obama will host Democrats on the Ways and Means Committee.

On the Hill: the Senate continues consideration of the tobacco regulation bill, while the House takes up a number of suspension bills. The $100 billion war spending bill continues to await a Senate-House conference. Defense Sec. Robert Gates and Treasury Sec. Timothy Geithner will testify in front of Senate Appropriations subcommittees.

The Virginia Democratic Primary takes place today. State Sen. Creigh Deeds, former State Rep. Brian Moran and former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe are vying to take on Republican Bob McDonnell. Deeds has surged into the lead in recent polls, though with a traditional low turnout (and bad weather so far this morning) it's unclear which of the three Democrats will win.

**President Obama
*Gallup: "President Obama's Cairo speech was given front-page treatment in the U.S. (and around the world), leading off most news broadcasts and appearing at the top of news Web sites. All of this visibility does not, however, appear to have made much difference in the way Americans view their president -- at least not according to Gallup Daily tracking interviewing conducted through Sunday."

*Los Angeles Times wraps up the stimulus push yesterday: "With the economy still sputtering and some experts doubting the program was meeting its goals, Obama vowed Monday to accelerate stimulus spending with the goal of creating or saving 600,000 jobs by summer's end."

*Washington Post reports that the Congressional Oversight Panel suggests there may need to be a second round of stress tests. The first one assumed a worst-case unemployment rate of 8.9 percent - it's already beyond that.

*Health care: Bloomberg reports that in the next 10 days, Obama "will give details of plans that White House aides say would pay for the bulk of a new health-care system. This includes his recent call for an extra $200 billion to $300 billion in savings for the Medicare and Medicaid programs for the elderly and the poor, the officials said."

Meanwhile, "despite a less-than-rousing reaction from the Obama administration, House Democrats are considering a new tax on employer-provided health benefits to help pay for expanding coverage to the uninsured," AP reports. Several officials said the House legislation will include a government-run insurance option as well as plans offered by private companies. The government option draws near-unanimous opposition from Republicans and provokes concerns among many Democrats as well, although Obama has spoken out in favor of it.

**Congress
*Ted Kennedy's presence is sorely missed in the health care debate, the NYT reports. "Mr. Kennedy's absence has raised alarm among Democrats and Republicans who say that his gravitas and the force of his personality, particularly his ability to usher colleagues past minor disputes in pursuit of larger goals, will be missed as the debate heats up."

Politico: "A landmark tobacco regulation bill advanced in the Senate on Monday amid growing pressure for the House to quickly accept the final product and lock up a long-sought victory for anti-smoking forces -- and for President Barack Obama."

*War Spending Bill: "President Barack Obama's penchant for last-minute demands, and a rebellion by liberal allies over his efforts to block the release of detainee abuse photos, have combined to sidetrack his bill to pay for an expanded war in Afghanistan as well as continuing military operations in Iraq. The $100 billion measure is awaiting a House-Senate conference committee after winning easy approval last month in both chambers, but an emerging compromise on the bill has become caught in the crosscurrents coming from both Obama's left and right on Capitol Hill," AP reports.

**Virginia Gov Democratic Primary
*Final RCP Average for Virginia: Deeds 35.3%, McAuliffe 27.0%, Moran 23.8%

*Washington Post: "Polls opened at 6 this morning for Virginia's Democratic primary, with severe thunderstorms sweeping parts of the region and expections of low voter turnout for a wide open, three-way race for the gubernatorial nomination."

*Politics Daily's Jill Lawrence: "Democrats have won almost every big Virginia election since 2001 - installing two governors and two senators, and breaking a 40-year presidential losing streak by going for Barack Obama last year. The pressure is on to choose another winner Tuesday in a three-way gubernatorial primary, or risk setting back their party and their president."

*Politico: "Thanks to a late surge of undecided voters in his direction, state Sen. Creigh Deeds appears to have moved ahead... It's a startling turn of events for a governor's race overshadowed by the outsize personality and deep pockets of McAuliffe, whose lead in the polls has dramatically dwindled in recent weeks at the hands of a veteran state legislator and country lawyer with a donkey named Harry S Truman."

*L.A. Times: "Now McAuliffe, 52, has brought his presidential-sized campaign to this little state. He faces two known quantities in today's primary: state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, an unvarnished country lawyer from rural Bath County, and former state legislator Brian Moran. Because the three agree on almost every issue, this has become a contest of money and style."

**Republicans
*Last night at the NRSC-NRCC fundraising dinner in Washington, Palin and her husband did a quick strut across the stage before taking their seats at a front table. NRSC Chair John Cornyn (Texas) thanked her for being there; NRCC Chair Pete Sessions did not. In his speech, Newt Gingrich mentioned seeing Palin and Sen. John McCain together just before the dinner started.

The stats from last night: around 150 House members; 33 senators; 2,000 guests; the two organizations made a combined $14.5 million.

*CNN: "In a lengthy speech that touched on topics ranging from health care to border security," Newt Gingrich railed against the Obama administration's 'disastrous' approach to federal spending and national security policy. He acknowledged the intra-party squabbles that have roiled the Republican party since last year's election, but he said such debates are to be expected and will never really disappear from politics."

*Sarah Palin did not speak at last night's Republican fundraiser, but she did talk to Fox News. The NY Daily News: "Sarah Palin said 'we told ya so' to President Obama on Monday night, claiming his spending polices to revive the economy were leading America to socialism.

*The Hill: "Several GOP senators offered searing criticism of the Alaska governor when asked in recent interviews whether she could pose a credible challenge to President Obama in 2012. 'She has to hunker down and govern and show she's not a joke,' said a GOP lawmaker who represents one of the southern battlegrounds of the 2012 election."

**Other Campaign Stuff
*RCP Blog has the details on a new Quinnipiac poll on the Florida governor race, showing Democrat Alex Sink with a slight edge over Bill McCollum.

*Roll Call reports that Rep. Robert Wexler (D) has spent more than $6,700 in campaign contributions this year on attorneys to help answer questions about his residency.

*NY Senate flips: "Two dissident Democrats, who had been secretly strategizing with Republicans for weeks, bucked their party's leaders and joined with 30 Republican senators to form what they said would be a bipartisan power-sharing deal. But the arrangement effectively re-establishes Republican control." Democrats had finally retaken control last fall for the first time in decades.

*Ethan Hastert, an attorney and son of the former House Speaker, will run for his dad's old seat, the Illinois 14th. "Generally, what I've been hearing is that people are not happy, not satisfied with our current leadership in Washington," he told the Kane County Chronicle. "Quite frankly, people are ready for the next generation of leadership."

--Mike Memoli and Kyle Trygstad

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