Poll after poll has shown that Gov. Jon Corzine is vulnerable to defeat as he seeks re-election this fall. But now, observers are watching what seems to be an increasingly competitive battle for the Republican Party nomination.

Today, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan's campaign released a poll that shows former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, the presumed favorite, with a "statistically insignificant" lead, 36.1-34.5. Among voters considered most likely to vote, Lonegan actually leads Christie head-to-head, though polling with a third candidate still has Christie narrowly ahead.

In a memo, Lonegan campaign manager Rick Shaftan says that the primary electorate is "very conservative," and that a majority of those voters identify Christie as moderate or liberal. "Those voters who see Christie as moderate or liberal are supporting Lonegan by a 49-36 margin while those who see Lonegan as a conservative back him by 54-26," Shaftan points out.

Christie has won the support of most county Republican organizations and is backed by the Republican Governors Association. But only eight years ago, conservative Jersey City Mayor Brett Schundler defeated the establishment favorite, Rep. Bob Franks, in that year's primary.

Primary Election Matchup
Christie 36.1 (-7 from March)
Lonegan 34.5 (+13)
Merkt 0.4
Undecided 29

A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed Christie with a 9-point lead over Lonegan.

Lonegan's poll was conducted by Neighborhood Research, surveying 687 Republicans between April 19 and 24. The margin of error was +/- 3.74 percent.