Strategy Memo: Tipping Point
Good Thursday morning. For the first time in 102 years, both the Cubs and the White Sox are in the playoffs. Chicago fans should be excited, right? Not when the Cubs looked downright pathetic, as they did last night. We'll see how Barack Obama's team fares tonight against Tampa Bay. Here's what Washington is watching today:
-- The House and Senate are back in session to wrap up its legislative business before heading out to campaign. After the economic stabilization package made it through the Senate by a 74-25 margin last night, it will be up to the House to pass it before adjourning and leaving Washington at the end of the week. President Bush is in Washington today with no public events planned save a meeting with business leaders on the financial bailout package.
-- The political world will spend tonight watching the high theater that is the vice presidential debate, wherein two very different candidates will clash over their records, their respective running mates' proposals and their plans for the office often compared to a bucket of warm spit. Each enters the debate with different boxes to check and decidedly uneven amounts of pressure.
-- For Sarah Palin, who has lately undergone what can charitably be described as a bumpy ride, she has to convince voters and pundits that a 44-year-old is qualified to be president, not just vice president. That means Palin will have to flex her muscles on substantive issues while simultaneously offering serious and well-thought-out criticism of Barack Obama. Given the interest surrounding Palin, people will tune in to watch her, meaning the pressure falls squarely on her shoulders.
-- Because of the pressure on Palin, it may be enough for Joe Biden to show up and not trip on his way onto the stage. Actually, Biden's mission is to stay in the background and not make headlines for insulting Palin. Debating a female opponent is a challenge (Just ask Rick Lazio), and Biden is taking that aspect of tonight's meeting seriously; he's reportedly spoken with Senators Hillary Clinton and Barbara Boxer for advice, the Wall Street Journal's Amy Chozick writes, and his plans include referring to and addressing Palin only by her formal title of governor.
-- But no one except his immediate family is tuning in to watch Biden. It's all about Palin, and it's all about her recent interviews, which even diehard Republicans are beginning to admit are becoming a distraction. Not only won't she tell us where she gets her news (Just say Newsweek, or Time, or the Weekly Standard. Really. One name. That would have sufficed.), now Supreme Court cases with which she disagrees are eluding her as well (video here). That's a terrible contrast for the McCain campaign; we're pretty sure former Senate Judiciary Chairman Biden has an answer or two.
-- It's not that Palin doesn't have answers. it's that she makes it look so painful. "Cringe-inducing" is one phrase we've heard Republicans use to describe Palin's performance. Plus, even basic tenets of the Republican platform seem to be lost in translation. Asked by CBS's Katie Couric whether she believes there is an inherent right to privacy in the Constitution -- the argument one makes when agreeing with Roe v. Wade -- Palin responded: "I do. Yeah, I do." It's one thing to not be of Washington, as has become so important this year. It's another thing to simply not know Republican talking points.
-- In fact, Palin, who almost single-handedly put McCain back in front of Obama after the Republican convention, is now becoming a drag on the Republican ticket, the Washington Post's Cohen and Agiesta write today. The latest ABC/Post poll shows about 60% of voters believe Palin does not have the experience to be president, and just 46% say she understands complex issues (49% think she does not). Nearly a third of registered voters say they are less likely to vote for John McCain because Palin is on the ticket (just 13% say they're less likely to vote for Obama because he picked Biden). Palin hasn't sealed her fate yet, and tonight gives her the opportunity to turn the narrative around. But actually doing that is becoming increasingly important.
-- Quote Of The Day: "We've sent a clear message to Americans all over that we will not let this economy fail," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said after the economic stabilization bill passed last night. Gee, thanks, Senator. The bill heads back to the House, with a few accoutrements for Puerto Rican rum makers and children's toy manufacturers thrown in for good measure, where it is expected to pass this time around. But could that just irritate more Republicans still seething over their party's lack of fiscal responsibility?
-- Today On The Trail: Obama is in Grand Rapids before heading to a rally in East Lansing as new polls show the Democrat leading by 6.6 points in the latest RCP Michigan Average. Michelle Obama is making her own swing through Michigan, with stops in Saginaw and Clinton Township. McCain has a town hall meeting set for Denver, Colorado, a state in which he trails Obama by five points in the latest RCP Colorado Average.



