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Strategy Memo: The Last Dance

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Good Thursday morning. Congratulations to the Philadelphia Phillies, who beat the Los Angeles Dodgers last night to make it to the World Series. Barack Obama's White Sox and John McCain's Diamondbacks are practicing their golf games, but Joe Biden's Phillies are headed to the series. Here's what Washington is watching today:

-- There's no question who the big winner in last night's debate was. Mentioned five times as much as the war in Iraq, Joe Wurzelbacher, a Toledo plumber caught on camera having a talk on taxes with Barack Obama last weekend, became an instant celebrity. Both McCain and Obama spoke directly to him, advocating their tax and health care plans and doing everything they could to win his vote. Wurzelbacher told reporters after the debate that McCain "got it right," writes Joe Curl of the Washington Times, though he won't say which candidate he's picked. "That's for me and a button to know," Joe told the Associated Press.

-- As for the candidates, it was their night to reach out to the Average Joe, plumber or not. With Wall Street suffering its worst day since Black Monday in 1987, the domestic policy debate focused mostly on economics, with Obama and McCain jousting over tax policy, health care, education, energy and spending. McCain was largely on offense, hitting Obama on every topic he could, writes the Washington Post's Dan Balz, but none of it fazed Obama.

-- With the economy so much in focus, it was taxes that dominated much of the debate (Thanks to Joe, fretting over his taxes), and perhaps the subject of McCain's most effective attacks of the night. McCain demonstrated there were two different tax plans and argued that his would save voters more money. If viewers left after the first fifteen minutes, McCain might be the big winner. Splice in the spending cuts and those are the arguments McCain wins.

-- On the other hand, McCain's least effective attacks came against Obama's associations with Bill Ayers, the 1960's and 1970's radical who sat on a board with Obama a decade ago. Anticipating the attack, Obama brought up the subject first and the exchange lasted all of three minutes. That's not enough time for voters to get the picture that Obama associates with anyone untoward. (Think of the Ayers attacks as akin to the attacks on Al Franken in the Minnesota Senate race; Norm Coleman figured out they're not working, so he won plaudits for taking down his negative ads)

-- Meanwhile, Obama had some of his best moments talking about health care, slamming McCain for proposing taxes on benefits and for providing just $5,000 in credits when the average plan costs $12,000 a year. Democrats have effectively pigeon-holed McCain's plans and made it more about taxing benefits than about any way McCain wants to spin it. And when health care becomes such a big issue in a campaign, controlling the way an opponent's plans are seen is a very effective way of gaining an edge.

-- So, overall, who won? Uncommitted voters overwhelmingly told pollsters they thought Barack Obama walked away with it, and by margins of more than two-to-one. Most pundits came to more tempered conclusions, giving McCain a narrow victory but concluding that it may not be enough to swing momentum back to his side. McCain's message seemed all over the place, like someone who knows he's running out of time. Wait until Saturday or so, when the first post-debate polls come out, but the numbers are unlikely to move toward McCain.

-- Then again, maybe those numbers don't have to move toward John Mccain, if Pennsylvania Rep. Jack Murtha is right. Murtha, known for occassionally sticking his foot in his mouth, told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that his area, in the western side of the state, "is a racist area," and that "the older population is more hesitant" to vote for an African American. The Obama campaign can't be happy about that, not because of any actual racial factors (And we'd bet it's more of a class thing; remember, these are the same Democrats who abandoned Al Gore, John Kerry and Michael Dukakis), but because these are the same folks Obama called "bitter" and clingy earlier this year. Murtha just opened an old wound that had so far been healing nicely.

-- Ominous Sign Of The Day: The National Republican Senatorial Committee has not re-upped its ad buys in the lone state in which a pickup is possible, The Fix reported late yesterday. Senator Mary Landrieu, running against Republican John Kennedy, has been the target of NRSC attack ads, but those are slated to end next Tuesday, fourteen days before Louisianans head to the polls. As Democrats have launched ads in Kentucky and Georgia, expanding their Senate map, the GOP has seen their last best hope fade away.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama heads to New Hampshire for a stop in Londonderry today, while McCain has a rally in Downingtown, Pennsylvania. Both candidates will head to the Alfred E. Smith Dinner tonight at the Waldorf Astoria in New York. Biden is a guest on NBC's Tonight Show and McCain will stop by David Letterman's Late Show, while Sarah Palin hits the trail in North Carolina for a rally in Elon and a fundraiser in Greensboro.

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