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Strategy Memo: Rethinking Palin

Good Wednesday morning. Who you got in the World Series, which starts tonight? We're rooting for that one city with the team no one's heard of. You know what we're talking about. It's, oh, Tampa, right. Here's what Washington is watching this morning:

-- The economy is in tatters, the military is engaged in two conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, unemployment is going to rise before it falls and millions live without health care. But the big buzz today surrounds Sarah Palin's clothing choices. The Republican National Committee has spent $150,000 on the potential vice president's wardrobe and jewelry, with stops at Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus, among other expenses, reports Politico's Jeanne Cummings.

-- John McCain's campaign would much rather focus on the rest of the issues facing the country, according to a statement issued by spokesperson Tracey Schmitt. But Republicans, donors and even staff members are disgusted with the huge level of spending when every penny counts, The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder reports. If the McCain campaign isn't careful, attempts to blame this one on the media could blow up in their faces and cost the campaign some serious credibility, even among a donor base they still need to compete.

-- Eight weeks after she joined the ticket, it's becoming clear that Palin is not the big boost to McCain's campaign that she appeared to be in the beginning. In fact, two polls out this week suggest she's becoming a serious drag on the ticket instead. Palin's qualifications to be president are the top concern about McCain, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. That beats out concerns that McCain would continue President Bush's economic policies. And while McCain's avenues of attack lately have sought to portray Barack Obama as lacking judgment, more voters said McCain himself demonstrated poor judgment in the latest Pew Research Center survey, by a 41%-29% margin over those who thought Obama demonstrated poor judgment. Palin, the most obvious result of that judgment, is now a negative to all but McCain's hardest-core base.

-- So what happens four years after her first attempt at national office? The Fix thinks Palin's appearance on Saturday Night Live and her insistence that she would prosecute the campaign more aggessively and back a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage are all the first steps toward a potential bid of her own in 2012. The positives: Conservatives and base Republicans still love her. The negatives: Republican opinion-setters and pundits -- that's not an oxymoron -- are turning on her fast, beginning with former Reaganite Peggy Noonan and David Brooks. If the ticket loses this year, Palin may get an inordinate amount of the blame.

-- But McCain has bigger problems this morning than just a big credit card bill. The Republican's campaign is cutting advertising expenditures in five key states they once thought they could win, the New York Times' Jim Rutenberg writes. McCain is pulling down ads in blue states New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Maine (where just the Second District was targeted) and in Colorado, which has been a reliably GOP state in recent years. The campaign is halving advertising in each state in order to free up additional money for advertising in Florida and in Indiana, another indication that Obama has succeeded in expanding the playing field.

-- Indiana?!? That's one of those states McCain can't lose and still win the presidency. McCain's entire strategy has been geared toward picking up electoral votes in the Rust Belt, and having pulled out of Michigan and now the rest of the Upper Midwest, he's down to Indiana and Pennsylvania. Plenty of Democrats, from John Murtha to Ed Rendell and everyone between, have warned -- inartfully -- that Obama might not do well in the western part of the state, where Reagan Democrats live. And that's exactly who the McCain campaign is targeting, the Wall Street Journal's Elizabeth Holmes writes. If they're successful, McCain has a shot at the White House. But they'll have to get over an eleven-point deficit to do so.

-- Meanwhile, Democratic ballots are far outpacing Republican ballots in early voting around the nation, the Times' Luo and Nixon write. Democrats have a big lead in Iowa, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada and Ohio, while Republicans have an advantage in Florida. Absentee ballots have historically favored Republicans, while Election Day results tend to be more favorable to Democrats. With up to a third of all voters casting early ballots, Democrats banking those votes now is a good way to boost one's own results come Election Night. That excitement voters have been telling pollsters about is real, too: Some voters waited as long as five hours in Florida, while 13% of Georgia registered voters have already cast ballots.

-- And Obama can afford an expensive ground game that gets people to the polls before Election Day. Instead of a 72-hour program that the Republican National Committee has run, Obama's has already begun, taking people in those key states to the polls to bank every possible vote. How can he afford it? Thanks to the same big donors who bankroll other Democratic campaigns, the Post's Mosk and Cohen write. Big donors who had maxed out to Obama ($4,600) and to the DNC ($28,500) can also donate to the Committee for Change, which will pay for those ground operations at a state party level. McCain has a similar joint fundraising program, but by all accounts his ground organization is inferior to Obama's.

-- GOP Strategy Of The Day: Shut up! That needs to be the title of a memo destined for every congressional Republican who has the urge to open his or her mouth over the next two weeks. First, Michele Bachmann suggests members of Congress ought to be investigated for anti-American views. Then North Carolina Rep. Robin Hayes said "Liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God" during a rally in Concord, North Carolina. Now, New York Rep. Randy Kuhl is on camera telling a local television station that the Democratic majority "wants the American public to suffer and to hurt," The Hill's Aaron Blake reports. The loose lips are making some GOP strategists pretty nervous.

-- Today On The Trail: McCain kicks off his day with a rally in Goffstown, New Hampshire before heading to Ohio for joint rallies with Palin in Green and Cincinnati. Tonight, the GOP ticket will sit for an interview with NBC's Brian Williams. Obama will rally in Richmond and Leesburg, Virginia, while running mate Joe Biden has his second day of events set for Colorado, with stops in Colorado Springs and Pueblo.