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« PA 10: Carney (D) +15 | Blog Home Page | MI 09: Peters (D) Leads »

Strategy Memo: Impending Disaster

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Good Friday morning. Barack Obama says he's a Phillies fan now, taking a bold stand that could irritate all fifteen Dodger fans who live outside California. Here's what Washington is watching today:

-- Forget William Ayers, Charles Keating (Or Frank Keating, for that matter), liberal voting records or erratic performances. Once again, the economy is going to dominate the news today. The Russian stock market suspended trading today, while markets around the globe sputtered through serious losses. Dow futures were way down before the market opened this morning, and if one is interested in one's own fortunes, check your bank balance, not your 401(k) statement. G7 finance ministers are holding an emergency meeting in Washington today, but whether any solutions come out of that meeting remains to be seen.

-- It is the impending crisis that has changed Americans' outlook on government, and therefore their party preferences. Instead of small, out of the way government, the appetite is for a someone who gets something done, though that something remains an ambiguous concept. The outcome of this election suddenly looks a lot better for Democrats, and party strategists are whispering about picking up dozens of House seats. The number 60 -- a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate -- has come up, and though it remains a long shot, Democrats suddenly have new hope. Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, one of the smartest guys in the business, sees Democratic prospects going "from good to great," giving Republicans a brand new reason to plan an extra-long post-election vacation.

-- On the presidential campaign trail, all may not be lost for John McCain, but the fact that he trails Obama by a significant margin is in his supporters' heads. The anger is building in GOP crowds, with McCain and Sarah Palin frequently interrupted by insults aimed at Obama, the Washington Post's Shear and Bacon write. McCain supporters urged him yesterday to slam Obama over Jeremiah Wright and Michael Pfleger, over Ayers and Nancy Pelosi, and they're seriously mad. McCain's campaign has to turn that anger into positive energy before it spirals into depression.

-- Everything looks like it's coming up Obama lately, and Democrats feel like they're one big step away from sealing the deal. If McCain goes seriously negative at the third and final presidential debate next week in New York, he'll have to walk a delicate line between finding effective ways to nail Obama and dropping over the cliff's edge. Joe Biden, for one, is egging McCain on perilously close to that edge. "John McCain could not bring himself to look Barack Obama in the eye and say the same things to him," Biden said at a rally in St. Joseph, Missouri, per NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli. If McCain takes that bait, the GOP could be in serious, and irreversible, trouble.

-- Obama has pulled a Ross Perot, buying up half an hour of primetime television just days before Election Day, the Hollywood Reporter writes. Obama's infomercial-length ad will run Wednesday, October 29 at 8 p.m., and it won't be on Obama's own satellite channel or some barely-watched specialty channel; the Democrat has rented space on CBS and NBC. Ad expert Evan Tracey estimates to the Hollywood reporter that Obama has more cash than there is television left to buy. Even better, the half-hour ad will pre-empt "Gary Unmarried," the new Jay Mohr vehicle. But we kid. The serious conclusions one may draw, writes Ben Smith, are that Obama's fundraising is going just fine.

-- Meanwhile, the first October surprise of the year comes out today to little fanfare as legislative investigators release results of their probe into Sarah Palin's firing of Alaska's top cop. The Troopergate investigation is under review by some Alaska lawmakers, though they've been sworn to secrecy, per the Associated Press, but it's expected to show just how far Palin went in urging Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan to fire Michael Wooten, her former brother-in-law, writes the New York Times' Serge Kovaleski.

-- But Palin has no reason to worry. The McCain campaign has released their own report exonerating the governor of any wrongdoing, writes AP's Matt Apuzzo (Who's probably thinking about a raise after the last six weeks of Palin mania). The campaign report says her firing of Monegan was over budget disputes and didn't have anything to do with Wooten. That's one explanation, but it's probably not going to have an impact on the two remaining reports prepared by legislative and executive investigators.

-- Hero Of The Day: Why do we know who Sarah Palin is? Because of a public relations firm that pitched her to national reporters just after she took office, the Washington Post's Kimberly Kindy writes today. Without that p.r. firm, Palin the wunderkind would still be doing what she did during her first month as governor, puttering around Juneau and showing up when ceremony called for it. Instead, she's the energy expert hockey mom who just might be Vice President of the United States.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama kicks off day two of his American Jobs Tour with a rally in Chillicothe followed by a mid-day rally in Columbus, Ohio. McCain is in La Crosse, Wisconsin before heading to Lakeville, Minnesota. Palin starts her day at a fundraiser in Cleveland before attending a ribbon cutting ceremony. Later, she has a fundraiser set for Pittsburgh. Michelle Obama has a speech set for a women's issues conference in Chicago, where Joe and Jill Biden will join her.

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