Strategy Memo: Date To Debate
Good Wednesday morning. Barack Obama's White Sox are playoff-bound after a tough 1-0 win over the Minnesota Twins last night. Does he dare go root against the Tampa Bay Rays in the first round? Lots of Democratic votes in the Tampa Bay area. Here's what Washington is watching today:
-- The Senate is in session today, unlikely to take votes until this evening, when Rosh Hashana ends. The House remains out of session until tomorrow. President Bush meets with a top NATO commander overseeing Afghanistan today, then delivers remarks to the annual USO gala at a hotel here in Washington. At the Pentagon, Defense chief Robert Gates participates in the activation of U.S. Africa Command, the first time the continent has been under its own separate jurisdiction.
-- When the sun goes down tonight, the Senate will take up its own version of the $700 billion bailout plan, with new provisions raising the amount the FDIC will insure in personal bank accounts and including a spending bill the House didn't pass on Monday as well, CNNMoney reports. John McCain, Barack Obama and Joe Biden are expected to be there this evening to vote. Senate votes are easier to count than House votes, so don't expect a repeat of Monday's surprise fireworks.
-- With the bailout package looking more likely to pass the second time around, it's time to turn back to politics. About thirty-six hours from now, Biden and Sarah Palin will sit down across from each other to debate in what could turn out to be the most-watched moment of the entire campaign. Nielsen reported Monday that 52.4 million viewers saw the first presidential debate, ten million fewer than watched the first debate between John Kerry and George Bush, but there's little doubt that the Biden-Palin matchup will be a lot more interesting than John Edwards and Dick Cheney.
-- This also feels like an impending turning point in a race that's had more than a few. In general, vice presidential picks don't matter all that much, but this year they do. They say the vice presidential pick is the first truly presidential decision the candidates make, and tomorrow night those choices will be on display. Could the contrast between the two candidates further open up what is becoming a bigger and more evident lead for Obama, or will Palin turn around her recent and disappointing public image to thrill the crowd like she did in St. Paul? The answer to that question may very well determine the winner in November.
-- The contrasts are stark: The senior statesman with all the verbage in the world, the old joke is that the most dangerous place in Washington is between Joe Biden and a camera. Then there's the bright young energetic woman (much as we'd like age and gender not to be factors, they are) of whom so little is known. Both candidates are gaffe-prone, and their strategies tomorrow night will be designed to minimize those errors while pushing their would-be bosses on an intently-watching electorate.
-- Biden's strengths are clear. He's the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, an experienced debater and negotiator with as much policy background as anyone in the Senate. But he just can't help sticking his feet in his mouth, as when he called Obama "clean" during the primaries, or suggested that anyone entering a convenience store have a "slight Indian accent." Democrats should be worried about that "spontaneity," as the New York Times calls it today, might get Biden in trouble, especially if he appears in any way condescending toward Palin.
-- Palin's strengths are less obvious. While it's clear she could beat Biden on energy and gas questions -- polls show more Americans favoring domestic oil production than not -- it's less clear how well anyone knows what she's going to say. On domestic issues, McCain was thin in Friday's debate, focusing almost exclusively on cutting spending (he barely even mentioned his own tax plan). Will Palin expand upon that general theme in order to broaden McCain's appeal? On foreign policy, see above. No matter how much prep time she gets, how does one prepare Palin to debate the chair of that very committee?
-- Trooper Of The Day: One person likely to earn criticism no matter what happens is Gwen Ifill, of PBS, who will moderate the meeting between the two. The McCain campaign has already started suggesting Ifill is too liberal and virtually warned her not to ask Palin questions about foreign policy. But Ifill signed up for that part. What she didn't sign up for was a busted ankle, which she sustained on Monday while carrying a load of research materials up the stairs at her home. Ifill will still host the debate, and as one with recent experience with that particular injury, we only hope she heals quickly and painlessly.
-- Today On The Trail: Obama kicks off his day in La Crosse, Wisconsin with a rally before heading back to Washington for the Senate vote. McCain will give a speech on the economy at the Truman Library in Independence, Missouri before coming back to vote for the first time in months. Bill Clinton kicks off his campaigning for Obama with events in Orlando and Fort Pierce, Florida, while Michelle Obama has her own rallies planned for Boulder, Colorado and Kansas City.



