Strategy Memo: Closing Time
Good Monday morning. For what it's worth, both Reps. Joe Sestak (D-PA) and Charlie Dent (R-PA) told Politics Nation they were more interested in Saturday's Ohio State-Penn State matchup than they were in the World Series. It was a good day for both; the Nittany Lions and the Phillies got wins. Here's what Washington is watching today:
-- With eight days to go before Election Day, Barack Obama maintains his big lead both in battleground states and nationally. Obama leads by 7.6 points in the latest RCP Average and has increased his lead to statistically significant margins in Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. Taking into account states in which one candidate leads by more than five points, Obama leads McCain by a whopping 306 electoral votes to 157, putting the Illinois senator on the brink of a major sweep.
-- Those three swing states in which Obama now leads are only half the story. The Democrat holds smaller leads in five of six states that remain in the tossup category, all of which are deeply red states. A source with knowledge of Republican ad strategy tells Politics Nation that the Republican National Committee has shifted its advertising dollars from Colorado to Indiana in order to avoid a complete rout; nevertheless, Obama leads in the Hoosier State by a small fraction of a point. That he's even close speaks volumes: President Bush won Indiana by 21 points in 2004.
-- It's not just Indiana that's turning a little bit blue lately. Thanks to a surge of African American voters, an excellent turnout operation and an overwhelming advantage in advertising dollars he's able to spend, Obama enters the final week of campaigning by spending all his time on Republican-held turf, the New York Times' Nagourney and Zeleny write. Though they will likely stay red, Republicans are even alarmed about normally solid South Carolina and Georgia, where black voters have turned out in huge numbers (Perhaps the person who should be most worried is Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss; a recent DailyKos/Research 2000 poll showed Chambliss up by just two points and trailing Democrat Jim Martin 86%-8% among African Americans. But that was when African Americans made up 27% of the electorate. Now, African Americans are making up more than a third of early voters).
-- Meanwhile, as both candidates focus largely on states President Bush won in 2004, McCain and Obama will be in Pennsylvania today to rally the troops. It could be another day of bad comparisons for McCain, who drew just about 1/30th the crowd Obama drew in a rally in New Mexico late last week (In fact, even Hillary Clinton, rallying in New Mexico the same day as McCain, drew twice what the Republican nominee did). Crowd size may not matter, as CBS's John Bentley writes, but when 100,000 people head to Denver to hear Obama speak over the weekend, Bloomberg's Chipman and Nichols write, it's hard not to take notice.
-- With eight days to go before Election Day, at least some undecided voters still need to hear a final closing argument from both candidates. Obama gives his early this afternoon at the Memorial Civic Center in Canton, Ohio, the Canton Repository reports. The speech is set to include fewer shots at McCain and more lofty and post-partisan goals. It's the final speech Obama will make as he travels around the country this week, and Mark Halperin has excerpts.
-- McCain is kicking off his own closing argument, centered largely around two Joes, writes Newsweek's Andrew Romano. One is Joe the Plumber, the average American who McCain says will see higher taxes under Obama (Incidentally, Joe is thinking about running for Congress in 2010). The other is Joe the Senator, Obama's running mate, who recently told donors Obama would be tested early in his tenure. McCain's final argument is that his rival is not ready on the international scene and will take the wrong policies on the national stage.
-- Don't think McCain is finished with his campaign just yet. Speaking to Tom Brokaw on NBC's Meet the Press 41 years to the day after his plane was shot down over Hanoi, McCain claimed his own internal polls show him performing much better and refused to accept the premise that he was running behind Obama. McCain's final week on the trail, writes Time's Jay Carney, depends on winning Pennsylvania, keeping his team's morale high (something he's had to do a few times this year) and plugging up internal staff leaks for eight more days.
-- Guest Of The Day: She's used to asking the questions, but this weekend, The View's Elisabeth Hasselbeck was Sarah Palin's guest on the campaign trail in Florida, as the Times' Julie Bosman reports from Tampa. Palin and Hasselbeck both took on the flap over major RNC expenditures for clothing for the vice presidential candidate. "Instead of the issues, they are focused, fixated on her wardrobe," Hasselbeck said in introducing Palin, drawing big cheers. She may not be Oprah, but Hasselbeck may be this year's biggest GOP winner, emerging as the most prominent conservative voice on a daytime television talk show.
-- Today On The Trail: McCain starts his day in Cleveland for an economic meeting before heading to rallies in Dayton, Ohio and Pottsville, Pennsylvania. Obama will deliver his closing argument first in Canton before heading to Pittsburgh for a major rally. Palin meets with the Israeli ambassador this morning before heading to rallies in Leesburg, Fredericksburg and Salem, Virginia, while Biden hits his own rally in Greenville, North Carolina. Michelle Obama will hang out with Jay Leno on NBC's Tonight Show this evening.



