Good Wednesday morning. It's surprising to think that there are just twenty days to go before this whole thing is over. An increasing number of politicos just can't wait. Here's what Washington is watching today:

-- It's debate night at Hofstra University on Long Island, and it could not come soon enough for John McCain's campaign. Many thought Barack Obama had peaked a week ago, only to find new polls showing him above 50 and apparently pulling away. Obama leads McCain by a wide 50.1 to 42.1 margin in the latest RCP Average, and he shows no signs of slowing down in any one of the key swing states. Eight points is a big deficit to erase with twenty days to go, and McCain's going to have to make tonight count.

-- Obama has largely been sitting on his lead, building his GoTV program (the "field goal unit," as manager David Plouffe calls it) and remaining above the Ayers-Wright-ACORN fray. McCain needs to accomplish what Obama's rivals have been trying to do for nearly two years: Drag Obama off that pedestal and into the mud of a presidential election. And given the expectations and the audience he'll have tonight, McCain has the opportunity to make that happen. He also has to make it happen, because he's now run out of chances.

-- But what form will McCain's shots take? One bit of chin music will be Obama's supposed associations with William Ayers, the former Weather Underground leader who now teaches on education at a University of Illinois outlet. Obama had criticized McCain for not bringing the issue up to his face. Asked by St. Louis radio host Mark Reardon (a friend of Politics Nation, we're happy to say) whether he'd have the guts to bring up Ayers this time, McCain said he did. "I think he's probably ensured that it will come up this time," McCain said. Listen to the audio here.

-- With twenty days to go (Can you tell we're just a little bit happy about that milestone? Just wait until we hit ten), McCain continues to use Ayers as a favorite whipping boy to portray an un-American Obama. The Rev. Jeremiah Wright, which was supposed to be the game-changing weakness that would strip Obama of his post-racial appeal, hasn't come up in a serious way, aside from anonymous emails, in months. And voters don't seem to be buying arguments that Obama's just not qualified. In fact, the attacks on Obama may be what's hurting McCain, the New York Times' Cooper and Thee write today. McCain's favorability rating is an upside-down 36% to 41% who see him unfavorably (Sarah Palin's is an even worse 32% favorable to 41% unfavorable).

-- So McCain has to find a new way to slam Obama, and he's got twelve hours from the time this is published to do it before he sits down with Obama and CBS's Bob Schieffer tonight. McCain's goals will be to thrust, Obama's to parry. McCain doesn't like being negative, as we saw in the first two debates. But without a game-changing revelation this late in the contest, there may not be enough time for other options.

-- The buzzards are already circling the McCain campaign. Few are sure just who's driving the message, whether it's McCain himself or top strategists, but most agree that person or people deserve the blame. McCain's brother, Joe, is emailing the media criticizing the campaign, writes the Baltimore Sun's Paul West. Politico's Roger Simon sees McCain lurching between an attack strategy and an above-the-fray strategy. And former Clinton flack Howard Wolfson performs a pre-mortem with six steps that would have saved McCain.

-- Barack Obama's plan for victory largely depends on turning out new and heavily Democratic voters to the polls, something that hasn't always worked in the past. But early evidence indicates it may be working this time. Politico's Ben Smith points out a boosted number of early voters in Georgia and a surprising surge in the African American vote, just as many have predicted. In early voting so far, blacks make up a 37% share, while they're only 29% of the electorate. That's not going to put Georgia in play, but it's sure going to help in other states.

-- Anecdote Of The Day: We've written about it a lot at The Scorecard, but in another example of just how poisonous one Republican thinks his own party label may be, Oregon Senator Gordon Smith took every chance he got to associate himself with Democrats at every turn. Smith said nice things about Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and he's run television ads featuring John Kerry and Ted Kennedy. As Smith reaches out to Oregon independents and liberals, though, he may have to watch his right flank, the New York Times' William Yardley writes, as some local Republicans aren't happy.

-- Today On The Trail: With Obama and McCain in New York preparing for tonight's debate, Joe Biden and Sarah Palin are left to their own devices. Biden has events planned for Athens, Lancaster and Newark, Ohio, while Palin rallies in Dover, Weirs Beach and Salem, New Hampshire. Todd Palin will hit the trail for his own stops around New Hampshire, while Michelle Obama has a larger rally planned for Fort Wayne, Indiana.