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Strategy Memo: A Night In Nashville

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Good Tuesday morning. Exactly four weeks from today, polling places will be open. There's a long way to go until then. Here's what Washington is watching today:

-- It's all about the Belmont. Well, Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, where Barack Obama and John McCain meet tonight for their second debate, a town hall-style meeting that could become a good deal fiestier than their first meeting a few weeks ago. The two candidates spent yesterday talking more about their opponent than they did about themselves, and McCain's promise to take the gloves off with just a month to go virtually guarantees face-to-face attacks, writes the San Francisco Chronicle's Carla Marinucci.

-- Both McCain and Obama promised to make their races about more than the slash and burn politics of the past. That was then. This is October, when both candidates have thrown caution to the wind in attacking the other, the New York Times' Adam Nagourney writes. In fact, McCain and Obama are both running as challengers, trying to make the race about the other guy more than about themselves. McCain wants all Americans to know that Obama is "not like us," while Obama hopes everyone gets that McCain is "erratic" and not to be trusted.

-- But what happens if they use those tactics tonight, together? There are pluses and minuses, for sure. First of all, Obama's connection to William Ayers is tenuous at best (Though why do we feel the full story -- nothing devastating but just a few more details -- hasn't come out yet?). McCain's involvement in the Keating Five scandal could, if he tried, actually become a positive for him ("I know the worst of Washington and I spent the next decade trying to fix it; here are my results."). If both candidates use subpar ammunition against each other, it could look shrill and off-putting, something neither wants to become.

-- The debate will be a town hall format, but it won't be as free-flowing as the kinds of town hall meetings we saw McCain take in New Hampshire. The 100 or so questions from the audience will be selected prior to the beginning of the debate, the Sun Times' Lynn Sweet writes, and the moderator -- in this case, NBC's Tom Brokaw -- will not have the ability to ask followups. Add in what Sweet calls the "Lazio rule": Unlike in the 2000 New York Senate contest or in the presidential town hall that year, Obama and McCain will have to stay in their corners as marked on the floor.

-- Back to the attacking for a moment. This time around, it's fair to say McCain started it and Obama went along willingly. In Florida yesterday, Sarah Palin warned supporters that the road to Election Day would be rough, and, writes the Washington Post's Dana Milbank, she's the one making it that way. As McCain launched his own assault on Obama, asking "Who is Barack Obama?", Palin continues her assault both over issues like taxes and energy and over character. "I am just so fearful that this is not a man who sees America the way you and I see America," Palin said.

-- Doesn't it feel like Palin is increasingly pushing the McCain campaign to change strategy? McCain pulled out of Michigan; Palin said she wanted to take another stab at the state. McCain hadn't brought up the connection to Ayers; Palin did. And McCain's campaign has notably stayed away from bringing up the Rev. Jeremiah Wright; Palin says she thinks Wright is fair game. Plus, Palin said in her debate last week that the vice president can do more than the office is currently used for, leading some to wonder whether a Palin vice presidency would be one of the most active and visible in history. Take that as a good thing or a bad thing, depending upon who you're voting for, but does McCain really want to be told what to do by his running mate? We doubt we'd ever see Joe Biden publicly suggest new and different tactics.

-- Then again, perhaps the cynic would suggest Palin is setting up an "I told you so" moment after an election that looks increasingly more favorable to Obama. Obama leads by 5.8 points in the latest RCP Average, and he's got more fundamental strengths, new polls show. Voters trust Obama by wide margins to better handle improving the economy (46%-29%), the mortgage and housing crisis (42%-27%), energy prices (42%-34%) and the crisis on Wall Street (36%-30%), according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. The same poll shows 59% of voters say economic issues are most important to them, with foreign policy and domestic issues trailing at 16% and 15%, respectively. Obama's advantage on the issue of the day may be enough to make some Republicans start thinking about 2012.

-- Margin Of The Day: But Obama can't win if his voters don't show up. Recall James Carville's maxim that another word for a candidate who relies on young and new voters is "loser." But a month out, younger voters still have their enthusiasm, a new analysis by Gallup's Lymari Morales shows. 64% of younger voters have already given a lot of thought to the election, and about 80% say this election is the most important in the last fifty years or the most important ever. If Obama's success at turning out younger voters in the primary can be duplicated in November, another name for a candidate who relies on younger voters might become "president."

-- Today On The Trail: While McCain and Obama finish up their debate prep, Palin is on the trail today, with rallies planned for Jacksonville and Pensacola, Florida as well as Greenville, North Carolina. Michelle Obama has an event planned for Jacksonville, North Carolina. Joe Biden will attend his mother-in-law's funeral today. Finally, at the White House, President Bush will meet and greet members of the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic teams.

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