It's no wonder national Republicans have picked Pennsylvania's Third District as one of the first places to run ads backing their candidate. A new survey shows Republican Rep. Phil English trailing his Democratic opponent by a wide margin.

The Research 2000 poll conducted for DailyKos surveyed 400 likely voters 10/6-8 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. English and Lake Erie Arboretum Director Kathy Dahlkemper were tested among a sample made up of 46% Democrats, 40% Republicans and 14% independents and others.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Dahlkemper...48 / 83 / 9 / 48 / 44 / 52
English......41 / 7 / 80 / 40 / 46 / 36

Obama........46 / 80 / 7 / 47 / 42 / 50
McCain.......44 / 8 / 85 / 43 / 49 / 39

President Bush won English's Third District by six points in 2004. But the economy is getting hit hard in northwest Pennsylvania, and English's lower income, largely blue-collar district is feeling the pain.

It's not that English has done anything to get fired. It's that the economy favors Democrats by such a wide margin right now that a political neophyte like Dahlkemper can give English a race.

Republicans are doing all they can to save their incumbent, dropping about $300,000 into the district. But Democrats, who recognized the opportunity for a pickup, have spent about twice that amount so far.