State Senator John Adler, a Democrat, was supposed to have the inside track on retiring Rep. Jim Saxton's south New Jersey district. A new poll suggests Republicans have a good shot at keeping the seat. The Monmouth University poll, conducted 9/30-10/2, surveyed 430 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.7%. Adler and businessman Chris Myers were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Myers......44 / 4 / 79 / 40
Adler......41 / 79 / 9 / 37

Obama......46 / 86 / 6 / 45
McCain.....43 / 4 / 87 / 41

Myers has a big lead in Republican-leaning Ocean County, while Adler has a smaller lead in larger and more independent Burlington and Camden Counties. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district, but undecided independents will decide the race.