If there's a state in which change will dominate, it's North Carolina. The incumbent party trails the three races atop the ballot, according to a new poll. The TelOpinion Research poll, conducted for the conservative-leaning Civitas Institute, surveyed 600 likely voters between 10/6-8 for a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Senator Elizabeth Dole, Democrat Kay Hagan and Libertarian Chris Cole were matched up in the Senate race, while Democratic Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue, GOP Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and Libertarian Michael Munger were pitted against each other in the governor's race.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Hagan......45 / 68 / 15 / 44 / 44 / 46 (+4 from last, 9/20)
Dole.......42 / 17 / 77 / 41 / 43 / 41 (-2)
Cole....... 2 / 3 / 1 / 4 / 3 / 2 (-3)

McCrory....43 / 17 / 77 / 46 / 44 / 42 (no change)
Perdue.....41 / 64 / 13 / 32 / 41 / 41 (no change)
Munger.....-- / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- (-3)

The same poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by five points, 48%-43%. If you're an incumbent in North Carolina, you're in trouble.