Topics
Administration
Colorado
Congress
Democrats
Elections
Governor -- Alabama
Governor -- Delaware
Governor -- Indiana
Governor -- Kentucky
Governor -- Louisiana
Governor -- Missouri
Governor -- Montana
Governor -- New Hampshire
Governor -- New Jersey
Governor -- New York
Governor -- North Carolina
Governor -- North Dakota
Governor -- Ohio
Governor -- Pennsylvania
Governor -- Rhode Island
Governor -- Texas
Governor -- Utah
Governor -- Vermont
Governor -- Virginia
Governor -- Washington
House
House -- Alabama -- 02
House -- Alabama -- 03
House -- Alabama -- 05
House -- Alaska
House -- Arizona -- 01
House -- Arizona -- 03
House -- Arizona -- 05
House -- Arizona -- 08
House -- California -- 04
House -- California -- 12
House -- California -- 26
House -- California -- 50
House -- Colorado -- 02
House -- Colorado -- 04
House -- Connecticut -- 04
House -- Connecticut -- 05
House -- Florida -- 06
House -- Florida -- 13
House -- Florida -- 15
House -- Florida -- 16
House -- Florida -- 18
House -- Florida -- 21
House -- Florida -- 24
House -- Florida -- 25
House -- Georgia -- 05
House -- Georgia -- 10
House -- Georgia -- 12
House -- Idaho -- 01
House -- Illinois -- 01
House -- Illinois -- 03
House -- Illinois -- 06
House -- Illinois -- 10
House -- Illinois -- 11
House -- Illinois -- 14
House -- Illinois -- 18
House -- Indiana -- 07
House -- Indiana -- 09
House -- Iowa -- 03
House -- Iowa -- 04
House -- Kansas -- 02
House -- Kentucky -- 02
House -- Kentucky -- 03
House -- Louisiana -- 01
House -- Louisiana -- 06
House -- Maine -- 01
House -- Maryland -- 01
House -- Maryland -- 04
House -- Massachusetts -- 05
House -- Michigan -- 07
House -- Michigan -- 09
House -- Michigan -- 13
House -- Minnesota -- 01
House -- Minnesota -- 03
House -- Minnesota -- 06
House -- Mississippi -- 01
House -- Mississippi -- 03
House -- Missouri -- 09
House -- Nevada -- 02
House -- Nevada -- 03
House -- New Hampshire -- 01
House -- New Hampshire -- 02
House -- New Jersey -- 03
House -- New Jersey -- 05
House -- New Jersey -- 07
House -- New Mexico -- 01
House -- New Mexico -- 02
House -- New York -- 13
House -- New York -- 21
House -- New York -- 24
House -- New York -- 25
House -- New York -- 26
House -- New York -- 29
House -- North Carolina -- 03
House -- North Carolina -- 08
House -- North Carolina -- 10
House -- Ohio -- 01
House -- Ohio -- 02
House -- Ohio -- 05
House -- Ohio -- 07
House -- Ohio -- 10
House -- Ohio -- 15
House -- Ohio -- 16
House -- Oregon -- 05
House -- Pennsylvania -- 03
House -- Pennsylvania -- 04
House -- Pennsylvania -- 06
House -- Pennsylvania -- 10
House -- Pennsylvania -- 11
House -- Pennsylvania -- 12
House -- South Carolina -- 01
House -- Tennessee -- 07
House -- Tennessee -- 09
House -- Texas -- 07
House -- Texas -- 10
House -- Texas -- 14
House -- Texas -- 22
House -- Utah -- 03
House -- Virginia -- 01
House -- Virginia -- 11
House -- Washington -- 08
House -- West Virginia -- 02
House -- Wisconsin -- 08
House -- Wyoming
International
Issues
Local Elections
Media
Miscellaneous
Morning Thoughts
Polls
Rankings
Republicans
Senate
Senate -- Alaska
Senate -- Arkansas
Senate -- Colorado
Senate -- Connecticut
Senate -- Georgia
Senate -- Idaho
Senate -- Illinois
Senate -- Iowa
Senate -- Kansas
Senate -- Kentucky
Senate -- Louisiana
Senate -- Maine
Senate -- Massachusetts
Senate -- Minnesota
Senate -- Mississippi
Senate -- Montana
Senate -- Nebraska
Senate -- New Hampshire
Senate -- New Jersey
Senate -- New Mexico
Senate -- North Carolina
Senate -- Oklahoma
Senate -- Oregon
Senate -- Pennsylvania
Senate -- South Carolina
Senate -- South Dakota
Senate -- Tennessee
Senate -- Texas
Senate -- Virginia
Senate -- Wyoming
WH 08
WH 08 -- Democrats
WH 08 -- Republicans

RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Strategy Memo: Obama's Field | Blog Home Page | OH 02: Schmidt (R) +7 »

MN: Franken (D) +9

Republicans have a long and storied history with the Minneapolis Star Tribune's pollsters. The short version: They loathe Minnesota polls. A new survey out over the weekend shows a surprising result in the state's U.S. Senate race, causing tensions to flare up once again.

The poll, conducted by Princeton Survey Research, surveyed 1,084 likely voters 9/30-10/2 for a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. Republican Senator Norm Coleman, satirist Al Franken of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley were tested.

General Election Matchup
Franken........43 (+6 from last, 9/12)
Coleman........34 (-7)
Barkley........18 (+5)

Pollsters found Coleman's once-strong job approval rating diving to 38%, the lowest ever measured in the Star Tribune poll, and suggested Franken's lead can largely be attributed to Barack Obama's strength in the state.

Republicans fired back, with Coleman's pollster issuing a memo questioning the Star Tribune's results. The memo points to a SurveyUSA poll from earlier last week that showed Coleman with a ten-point lead over Franken, and to eight of eleven polls that have Coleman ahead.

The Star Tribune poll "is wrong and inaccurate," pollster Glen Bolger wrote, arguing that Democrats were significantly oversampled. "These numbers would be accurate if the Star Tribune had done this poll in New York -- not in Minnesota!"

"Based on our own internal polling, as well as the trend averages of public polls over the past month, it is my opinion that we hold a narrow, but statistically significant lead going into the final weeks of the campaign," Bolger concluded.

Republicans have had problems with Star Tribune pollsters since at least 2002. But the most recent poll over which Republicans cried wolf turned out to be surprisingly accurate. Two Star Tribune polls out in early October and early November 2006 showed then-Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar leading Rep. Mark Kennedy by a 21-point margin. After the Star Tribune took serious beatings from the GOP, Klobuchar won by twenty points.

The paper is using a different pollster now than they did in 2006, but it hasn't stopped Republicans from finding fault with the Star Tribune's numbers. The barely-concealed hatred is bubbling back to the surface.