Democrat Mary Landrieu will do something she's never done before: Avoid a runoff. A new Southeastern Louisiana University poll surveyed 503 registered voters 10/20-23 for a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Landrieu and state Treasurer John Kennedy were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Landrieu...53 / 81 / 22 / 55
Kennedy....34 / 11 / 65 / 26

Landrieu is leading Kennedy in every region of the state, including by four points in the heavily Republican Cajun Triangle, where John McCain leads Barack Obama 55%-33%. Landrieu also trails Kennedy by just six points among white voters, a much smaller margin than that which a successful GOP candidate needs to win the state.

Okay, you caught us: Even if Kennedy makes a dramatic comeback, Landrieu will still avoid the runoff. Louisiana changed its rules and no longer holds runoffs if no candidate reaches 50%. For years, campaign staffers just off the trail in November could count on a free trip to Cajun country for December runoffs. Tragically, no more.