"Our analysis last spring was that if we were talking about the 3rd CD in late October, there would be a national wave developing," Indiana political analyst Brian Howey wrote this week. Sure enough, three polls out of the Hoosier State show seven-term GOP Rep. Mark Souder in serious jeopardy of being swept out by a Democratic tsunami.

The Howey/Gauge Poll surveyed 300 likely voters between 10/23-24 for a margin of error of +/- 5.7% (Party ID: 39% Dem, 47% GOP, 14% independent and other). Souder, Democratic attorney Mike Montagano and Libertarian William Larsen were tested.

General Election Matchup
Montagano........44
Souder...........41
Larsen........... 5

Another independent poll, conducted by Research 2000 for WANE-TV, surveyed 600 likely voters 10/16-18 for a margin of error of +/- 4% (Party ID: 30% Dem, 33% GOP, 37% independent and other). Souder, Montagano and Larsen were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Souder.......45 / 7 / 82 / 43
Montagano....40 / 82 / 5 / 38
Larsen....... 4 / 1 / 4 / 6

And nothing shakes loose an internal poll than bad news in independent surveys. A Winston Group poll for Souder's campaign surveyed 400 registered voters 10/15-16 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9% (Party ID breakdown: 26% Dem, 39% GOP, 35% independents and others). Only Souder and Montagano were tested.

General Election Matchup
Souder..........50
Montagano.......41

The three surveys do not give Souder a lot to brag about, as even his internal poll -- from two weeks ago -- shows him hovering at the crucial 50% mark. The Howey/Gauge survey shows just 35% say they would want to see Souder re-elected, while 50% say they want to elect someone new.

Still, the incumbent Republican isn't finished yet. A plurality of voters -- 42% -- see him favorably, whole 33% see him unfavorably, and the National Republican Congressional Committee is up with a new $189,000 advertising campaign.

But as is the case in most districts this year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is outspending Republicans, blasting Souder with a new $197,000 ad campaign. In total, the DCCC has spent almost double what the NRCC has spent in the Fort Wayne-based district, in the northeast part of the state.

The race could be as close as the presidential contest statewide. President Bush carried the district with 68% in 2004, eight points higher than his statewide performance, giving Souder hope that John McCain might drag him across the finish line.