How long will Barack Obama's coattails extend? Answer that question and you'll know if Mark Kirk will be back to Congress. A new poll conducted by Research 2000 for DailyKos suggests Kirk is in trouble, but still leads his Democratic opponent. The poll, conducted 9/30-10/1, tested 400 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Kirk and 2006 opponent Dan Seals were tested among a sample made up of 35% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 39% independents and others.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Kirk.....44 / 12 / 81 / 45 / 47 / 41
Seals....38 / 70 / 5 / 34 / 36 / 40

Obama....50 / 83 / 10 / 51 / 46 / 54
McCain...38 / 7 / 78 / 36 / 43 / 33

Kirk (45%) and Seals (43%) have relatively similar favorable ratings, but Kirk's unfavorables (40%) are higher than Seals' (28%), likely thanks to attack ads both Seals and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have run. And Seals will have more ads to run; his campaign announced today it had raised over $700,000 last quarter.

Still, Kirk has a lead despite Obama's strong performance in the district. If Democrats can't knock him off in their own nominee's home state in such a favorable year, they may stop trying in the future.