In an interview with a local newspaper editorial board last week, Rep. John Shadegg voiced doubt over John McCain's chances of winning the White House. Similarly, many in the GOP are wondering whether Shadegg will win his own race. A Research 2000/DailyKos poll surveyed 400 likely voters from 10/20-22 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Shadegg, attorney Bob Lord, and Libertarian candidate Michael Schoen were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Shadegg (R)...50 / 7 / 81 / 45 / 53 / 47 (+2 from last, 10/8)
Lord (D).......40 / 88 / 7 / 44 / 38 / 42 (+1)
Shoen (L).. 2 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 (no trend)

The DCCC has spent almost $1.5 million on the seat and some Arizona Republicans are concerned about Shadegg's future, but he's at the critical 50% mark and the Libertarian doesn't seem to be dragging him down. Win or lose, the seven-term congressman's vote percentage appears likely to dip below his previous low of 59% in 2006.