Arizona Republican John Shadegg should be perfectly safe this year, especially given the coattails he'll see from having home-state Senator John McCain atop the GOP ticket. But two new polls show Shadegg under the 50% mark, giving him reason to worry.

A poll conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal blog DailyKos surveyed 400 likely voters between 10/6-8 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Shadegg and Phoenix attorney Bob Lord were tested among a sample size of 46% Republicans, 29% Democrats and 25% independents.

General Election Matchups
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Shadegg....48 / 6 / 78 / 43 / 51 / 45
Lord...........39 / 88 / 6 / 43 / 37 / 41

McCain......50 / 6 / 81 / 44 / 52 / 48
Obama......39 / 88 / 6 / 43 / 38 / 40

A second poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by Anzalone Liszt Research surveyed 400 likely voters between 10/6-8 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Shadegg, Lord and Libertarian candidate Michael Shoen were tested. The party ID breakdown was 46% Republican, 30% Democratic and 24% independents or others.

General Election Matchup
Lord....................45
Shadegg.............44
Shoen...................5

Generic GOPer...46
Generic Dem.......43

R2K didn't include Shoen in a district that has recently awarded at least a few points to Libertarian candidates. And given the discontent with the Republican Party even among its own base, Shoen may do better than Libertarians in other years.

The two major parties have very different views of Shadegg's north Phoenix district. Democrats say it resembles the Tempe- and Scottsdale-based Fifth District, which Rep. Harry Mitchell took over in 2006, while Republicans argue it is a very different type of district that is likely to remain in GOP hands.