He's had a rocky first term, but Idaho Rep. Bill Sali could be cruising toward a second, according to an independent poll. The poll, conducted for DailyKos by Research 2000, surveyed 400 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Sali and businessman Walt Minnick, the Democratic nominee, were tested among a sample with 47% Republicans, 24% Democrats and 29% independents and others.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Sali.......46 / 11 / 67 / 41 / 50 / 42
Minnick....35 / 81 / 9 / 39 / 33 / 37

McCain.....59 / 17 / 82 / 57 / 64 / 54
Obama......32 / 76 / 8 / 34 / 30 / 34

Sali still has work to do to consolidate his Republican base, and he's not hugely popular. 48% of district residents view Sali favorably while 42% see him unfavorably. But the overwhelming GOP tilt of the district will help his bid for a second term.

A sidenote: Both parties have reserved television time in the state's First District, and Democrats are very optimistic about Minnick's chances. It may be a case of irrational exuberance, but party strategists in Washington seem to give Minnick an inordinate amount of attention.