A Democratic poll shows former party activist Jim Himes tied with Republican Rep. Chris Shays in one of the more competitive districts in the country. The poll, conducted by The Feldman Group for Himes' campaign, surveyed 500 likely voters between 9/17-18 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

General Election Matchup
(All / Ind)
Shays...........45 / 45
Himes...........45 / 43

Obama...........56
McCain..........33

Just 36% of voters say they think Shays deserves re-election, while 46% say it's time for someone new. National Democrats have already poured $164,000 into the race and Himes has raised good money on his own.

Television spending in the district can only go so far, given that it's covered by the New York media market, meaning Shays' name identification will give him an inherent advantage. Shays is a survivor, having won with 51% and 52% in the past two cycles.