Retired Air Force officer Charlie Brown (D) will like this poll -- showing him leading by 5 points -- even more than the one his campaign released a few weeks ago, which had him up by just 2 points. Seeking to replace the ethically-challenged Republican John Doolittle, Brown's 16-point lead among independents played helped give him the edge over State Senator Tom McClintock.

The Daily Kos survey, conducted by Research2000, polled 400 likely voters between 9/23-25 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Brown and McClintock were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Men / Wom / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Brown .........46 / 42 / 50 / 86 / 13 / 49
McClintock....41 / 46 / 36 / 7 / 72 / 33

According to the poll, John McCain currently leads Barack Obama in the district by a 51%-39% margin. The results suggest Brown can cut across the Republican leaning of the district, and his big lead among independents could help Democrats steal a seat.