A new poll shows North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole retaining a solid lead over her Democratic rival, but it's not a done deal by any means. And a first round of advertisements from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee could cut into that lead.

The poll, conducted by Research 2000 on behalf of DailyKos, surveyed 600 likely voters between 7/28-30 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Dole and State Senator Kay Hagan, the Democratic nominee, were tested among a survey made up of 44% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 20% independents and others.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom / R-D / Cha / W-S)
Dole.......50 / 18 / 89 / 50 / 54 / 46 / 46 / 49 / 53 (+2 from last, 4/30)
Hagan....42 / 71 / 8 / 39 / 39 / 45 / 47 / 40 / 38 (+1)

McCain...47 / 16 / 85 / 47 / 52 / 42 / 42 / 51 / 52
Obama...43 / 77 / 6 / 35 / 39 / 47 / 48 / 38 / 38

(Geographic note: "R-D" is the Raleigh-Durham area; "Cha" is the Charlotte region; and "W-S" is Winston-Salem and surrounding areas)

The overriding lesson: Democrats need to consolidate their base and win over more independent voters, as close to twice as many voters from their base are backing the Republican candidates. Hagan is a popular challenger, with a 51% favorable rating and a 32% unfavorable, which compares positively to Dole's 53% favorable and 38% unfavorable.