Strategy Memo: Thriving On Conflict
Good Tuesday morning. If you're Midwest Airlines, who do you fear more at the moment, the Federal Aviation Administration or President Obama? After Obama's charter malfunctioned yesterday, one wonders if Midwest will be able to secure landing rights in the next four years. Here's what Washington is watching today:
-- After a brief hiatus, the Senate will again take up amendments to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act this morning, an issue that could have liberals up in arms at Democratic leadership in Congress and at Barack Obama, who signaled a position on the matter about which his base was not pleased. There will be no votes today, though, to allow members to attend the late Senator Jesse Helms' funeral. The House takes up a number of environmental measures related to oceanic conservation as well as a resolution celebrating Thurgood Marshall's 100th birthday, among others. President Bush remains in Japan for the G-8 summit.
-- John McCain must hate July. The Republican nominee-in-waiting had a miserable month a year ago, with his candidacy almost imploding, and this year it doesn't look any better. Republicans are questioning his ability to manage a campaign while the media gleefully plays along -- so much so that even cable news talking heads are openly wondering where former strategist Mike Murphy will fit in. The three squabbling camps the New York Times identifies, those owned by old aides like Rick Davis and Mark Salter, new Karl Rove acolytes like Steve Schmidt and one defined solely by Murphy, aren't going to have much of a role in the McCain White House if their candidate can't win in November.
-- It's not just the political side of things that's getting to McCain; even his policy proposals are being questioned. McCain, who has called for a balanced budget by 2013, is unlikely to achieve that mission with his current mix of spending cuts and tax cuts, according to economists, the Times' Robert Pear writes. McCain wants to cap federal spending growth at 2.4%, less than half the current growth rate, continue President Bush's tax cuts at a rate of about $700 billion over five years and add $60 billion in tax cuts of his own.
-- Meanwhile, he didn't have an easy time at a town hall meeting in Denver yesterday, the Wall Street Journal's Elizabeth Holmes writes, bringing up an important point to remember about McCain's campaign: The guy doesn't pre-screen his audience, and he will take hard questions on immigration, the war in Iraq and other issues -- like the recently-passed GI bill McCain was against, as well as the Community Choice Act, which would allow wheelchair-bound people greater choice in where to live. That's great for the media, and it's a refreshing burst of authenticity. But those who live by the dialogue die by the dialogue, meaning McCain probably has more embarrassing moments to come.
-- Not all is rosy for Barack Obama's campaign either, though. Obama's stunning shift to the center of the political spectrum, whether on FISA, abortion issues, gun control, the death penalty and even the war in Iraq, has generated some of the worst headlines Obama has seen all primary season, as well as the harshest editorials from an ordinarily fawning media. Too, Obama is unlikely to get his full, and costly, agenda passed should he win the White House, the LA Times' Peter Nicholas writes today. Forget the "new kind of politics," could Obama be tainted with the specter of the dreaded flip-flop? One thing's for sure, Republicans will definitely paint him as a big-spending liberal.
-- The latest blow to Obama's reputation, and one of the most damaging, comes on Iraq, as the Illinois Senator's position is not what it once was. In an interview with the Military Times, Obama said he would "draw down in a deliberate fashion in consultation with the Iraqi government at a pace that is determined in consultation with General Petraeus and the other commanders on the ground. It strikes me that that is something we could begin relatively soon after inauguration. If, on the other hand, you've got a deteriorating situation for some reason, then that's going to have to be taken into account." That's not the same as the one to two brigades a month Obama had planned to pull out during the primaries, and it's got Republicans across the board pointing out the massive flip-flop, as NYT highlights.
-- Finally, both campaigns are well into the vice presidential vetting process, having narrowed their lists down to folks from whom they will request disclosure documents of various kinds. Obama's campaign team, headed by Caroline Kennedy and Eric Holder, asked at least one potential veep for his information, suggesting there are more files being turned over, while McCain's search chief, A.B. Culvahouse, has his own list of ten candidates, including Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Atlantic's Marc Ambinder reported yesterday. Still, the choices could be as much as a month and a half away, especially if McCain uses his pick to mitigate Obama's post-convention bounce.
-- Withdrawal Of The Day: The one candidate from whom sources say Kennedy and Holder actually requested disclosure documents, Virginia Senator Jim Webb, will not be Obama's vice president, telling the Illinois senator as much himself and issuing a statement yesterday, per Ambinder and MSNBC. The positives of a Webb candidacy: Military experience, might have helped Obama with Virginia. The negatives: He shoots off his mouth and he's far more conservative than most of his netroots fans think. That could have been a recipe for disaster.
-- Today On The Trail: Obama raised cash in Atlanta last night, and today he heads to Powder Springs, Georgia, in deeply Republican territory, for a town hall meeting. Later, he'll try that whole flying thing again and head to Washington to address the annual League of United Latin American Citizens convention at a Washington hotel. McCain hits the cable nets this morning before delivering his own remarks at LULAC around noon. Later, he has a town hall-style event scheduled for Moon Township, Pennsylvania, just outside of Pittsburgh.



