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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« FEC Second Quarter -- The South | Blog Home Page | FEC Second Quarter -- Florida »

Strategy Memo: The Old War

Good Thursday morning. Two days after the American League took fifteen innings to beat the National League by a 4-3 margin, Democrats will face their Republican foes at the Nationals' new stadium in the annual Congressional Baseball Game. We're not making predictions, we're just pointing out that Republicans have won seven years in a row. Here's what else Washington is watching today:

-- The House will perpetuate the energy debate today by encouraging oil drilling on existing leases. Republicans argue that many of the leases have no oil under them, making drilling futile. The Senate is considering increased regulation of the energy futures market. President Bush will attend the funeral of Tony Snow, his former press secretary who passed away on Saturday after two bouts with cancer. Later, Bush travels to California to witness wildfire damage and to hold a Republican National Committee fundraiser in Napa, before overnighting in Tucson, where he has a fundraiser scheduled tomorrow.

-- The long wait is finally over, and the news is decidedly mixed: Barack Obama's presidential campaign raised $52 million in June, closer to the low-end estimates of $30 million than the high-end estimates by some in the media of $100 million. Campaign manager David Plouffe, in an email to supporters, thanks them for the average donation of just $68 in the first month after the presumptive Democratic nominee wrapped up his party's nod. It's Obama's best month since February, and it's a full $30 million more than John McCain raised in June. But it's half of what a spectacular month could have been.

-- Too, Plouffe points out, Democrats are actually running behind their Republican counterparts in the fundraising department. While neither the Obama campaign nor the Democratic National Committee have actually filed their reports, the two committees have a combined $72 million stockpiled, an increase from the $47 million they had together at the end of May. McCain and the RNC, though, have about $96 million in the bank. Add to that a contribution of $84.1 million to McCain from taxpayers and the fact that the RNC is likely to once again far outpace national Democrats and Obama's campaign is actually in danger of being outspent.

-- Obama spent part of his day yesterday explaining how his administration would not be consumed with fighting "the last war," and instead would look ahead to emerging threats. Joined by non-proliferation maven Sam Nunn, the former Georgia Senator, Obama also said his administration would work to secure loose nuclear weapons and then eliminate them, the AP's Glen Johnson reports. Both Nunn and Senator Evan Bayh, who hosted Obama in West Lafayette, Indiana, have generated veep buzz, but more importantly, is Obama beginning a contrast between the next and last wars? That sounds suspiciously like Bill Clinton's bridge to the 21st century, which he used to make rival Bob Dole look like yesterday's news.

-- Speaking of fighting the last war, top McCain adviser Carly Fiorina is still meeting with disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters, this time in Clinton's backyard in Westchester, New York. The Wall Street Journal's Cooper and Emshwiller write that Fiorina calls top representatives from new Clinton-backing organizations "intensely uncomfortable" with an Obama presidency. It's the second meeting with Clinton supporters Fiorina has had in recent weeks. But with national polls showing the same number of Democrats backing Obama as Republicans backing McCain (And keep in mind that Republicans are generally a more homogeneous voting bloc), hasn't the Clinton-to-McCain ship sailed?

-- One name that hasn't surfaced a lot, except in Democratic talking points, is George W. Bush. The albatross around Republican necks is playing a role in down-ballot races, but if he gets involved in the presidential race it's not going to be to his favored candidate's liking. That could be why a top McCain adviser not terribly subtly linked the unpopular president's management style to that of Barack Obama, as Huffington Post's Sam Stein reports. "I think the American people have had enough of stubbornness and inflexibility in national security policy," Randy Scheunemann said on a conference call yesterday. That's a deliberate shot across the bow if there ever was one.

-- Then again, while Bush has a legacy to protect that can be aided by electing a fellow from his own party to replace him, the relationship between the president and McCain has never been good. They admire each other's tenacity, Time's Jay Carney writes, but that's about where the respect ends. The list of issues on which McCain joined Democrats over the Bush White House is long and distinguished, and if President Bush ever decides to exert any form of revenge, another giant bear-hug would be just the way to flex those muscles.

-- Big Brother Of The Day: It knows your email address. Your phone number. Your magazine subscriptions. And whether you're a member of the ACLU or the NRA. It's not the government's terrorist-watch list. It's Barack Obama's campaign, as Salon's Mike Madden writes. Thanks to the most sophisticated data-mining operation Democrats have ever run, the five million or so people who have signed up using their email addresses have full files, and the future of political data management as we know it has arrived.

-- Today On The Trail: John McCain lands in Kansas City this morning for a rally at the airport followed by a town hall meeting. Later tonight, he holds a fundraising reception in Ferrysburg, Michigan. Obama hasn't made his schedule public yet, but wife Michelle will hold a breakfast event to fundraise with Washington State Governor Christine Gregoire in Seattle and half-sister Maya Soetoro-Ng hosts a forum for women in Tampa, Florida.