Strategy Memo: Shake It
Good Thursday morning. Politics Nation Radio is pre-taping Saturday's show this morning, so apologies for the light posting. And, if we don't get a chance to say it any other time, have a safe and happy Fourth of July. Here's what Washington is watching today:
-- The House and Senate remain on Independence Day recess through Tuesday, and most of the rest of Washington has shut down. President Bush attends a ceremonial groundbreaking at Walter Reed Hospital today, but other Cabinet officials have the day off. On the Capitol Lawn, the National Symphony Orchestra is holding a dress rehearsal in advance of tomorrow's festivities that will feature Huey Lewis and the News, Taylor Hicks, Jerry Lee Lewis, Jimmy Smits and Scott Hamilton, among other celebrities.
-- As the week comes to a close, it hasn't been stellar for either candidate. But it feels like it's been a lot worse for John McCain, who, while on foreign travel, ordered a shake-up of his campaign that leaked yesterday, the New York Times and others report. It's the second time responsibilities have been juggled, the first coming almost exactly a year ago. In this iteration, Steve Schmidt will take on a much bigger role in managing day-to-day operations, while campaign manager Rick Davis will focus more on long-term projects.
-- Others taking a more prominent role in McCain's shop include Greg Jenkins, who directed the Bush advance team in the White House, brought in to erase errors in setting up campaign events; and Nicolle Wallace, former Bush communications director who will travel with McCain. It's not a major house-cleaning, but McCain hopes it can be enough to get what had looked like a flailing campaign back on track. A move like this is better done today than in September, and don't believe those who will point to this as McCain running into a brick wall; the shake-up last year actually worked for McCain. By the way, Schmidt and Wallace are veterans of Karl Rove's political team, the Swamp's Frank James writes, putting McCain's campaign in the hands of the next generation of GOP strategists.
-- Meanwhile, the good news for the Republican nominee: He's started buying advertising time, and so has the Republican National Committee. But even that is a mixed blessing. McCain will run minute-long advertisements in what's described as a moderate buy in four Virginia markets -- Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke and three cities in the state's southeast corner, as TPM's Greg Sargent writes. McCain realizes, the ad buyer tells Sargent, that Barack Obama's moves toward Virginia are not a gimmick, and that the Commonwealth's electoral votes need to be defended.
-- The Republican National Committee, on the other hand, will not be spending its time running the happy, feel-good ads that McCain's campaign will. In fact, the RNC is plotting their first assault against Obama, ads which will run this weekend in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, MSNBC's First Read reported yesterday. The topic will be energy security, but not much is known beyond that. The funding for the spot comes out of the RNC's independent expenditure arm, giving McCain some distance in that no one at his campaign or at the RNC is technically able to talk with the ad-maker about his work. And a boost for McCain in three Democratic-leaning states and one crucial swing state couldn't come at a better time.
-- In fact, McCain got other good news this week, as a group of 100 top Christian conservative leaders gathering in Denver agreed to do all they could to get McCain elected, even though they haven't always trusted or agreed with him on a host of topics, as Time's Michael Scherer writes. The agreement, spearheaded by Ohio social conservative leader Phil Burress comes after McCain has spent weeks appealing to conservative voters, and as Obama himself makes the pitch that evangelicals can vote Democratic. McCain will need Bush-like numbers among social conservatives (Bush won them by about a three-to-one margin in 2004) if he's going to have a chance of winning in November.
-- He'll also need money, something his Democratic opponent has by the dump truck. Obama, who has raised almost $300 million so far this campaign cycle, is actually pushing to raise more money at a faster pace, now that he made the decision to skip public financing. The campaign has more than a dozen big-donor events planned for the next two weeks, the New York Times' Michael Luo and Christopher Drew write. That's going to benefit the Democratic National Committee, which will get the overflow from the big chunks of cash Obama can raise from top donors, so look for a big month for the DNC when the July reports come out. How much should we read into it, though, if June is an anemic month for national Democrats, as previous months have been?
-- Bright Idea Of The Day: Remember when the Democratic primary was coming to an end and the Strategy Memo was nothing but Obama versus Clinton? We feel like today balances some of that out. But, Obama is pondering a new scheme, the Los Angeles Times reports, to give his campaign an added bounce, and that's worth a mention. Instead of holding the Democratic National Convention from Monday through Thursday, August 28, why not end the gathering on Wednesday in order to get an extra day to bounce before Republicans gather in Minnesota? It could help if McCain is planning to announce his running mate right after the convention to step all over the Obama bounce, but it would certainly make Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and the 4,000-some delegates a little irritated.
-- Today On The Trail: Forget Virginia, maybe Obama's taking this Dakota thing seriously. Having run two advertisements in red states including North Dakota, Barack Obama is backing that up with a visit to a children's museum, to focus on veterans' issues, in Fargo today. John McCain, meanwhile, has a media availability in Mexico City this afternoon after meeting with President Felipe Calderon to discuss immigration and other issues. Obama will spend tomorrow in Butte, Montana, while McCain has yet to release a public schedule.



