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« A Risch Proposition | Blog Home Page | Obama To Invesco »

Strategy Memo: Seeing Spots

Good Monday morning. Here's hoping everyone still has all their fingers after the Fourth of July. ESPN reported a conversation between one of their writers and Indians pitcher C.C. Sabathia which occurred via text message. We're allowed to do that now?!? Here's what Washington is watching:

-- The Senate returns from recess today to resume consideration of major housing legislation, with a cloture vote scheduled for late this afternoon. The House is still on vacation, though they return to work tomorrow. President Bush is in Toyako, Japan, a resort town on the island of Hokkaido, for his final G-8 summit, and on his way over yesterday, staffers surprised him with a cake for his 62nd birthday. The summit lasts until Wednesday.

-- On the campaign trail, John McCain is taking every chance he can to call Barack Obama's judgment into question. This weekend, the battle was over Obama's statements that his position on Iraq was open to change as the situation on the ground evolves (CNN has the backgrounder). McCain's team, reverting to their assertion that "words do matter," wondered how Obama's Democratic base would feel about an evolution away from pulling out troops within 16 months, as the Illinois senator has proposed, perhaps the core reason Obama managed to beat Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Obama held a second press conference on Thursday after fury erupted over his initial comments, in which he tried to walk them back.

-- Meanwhile, McCain is getting more help from a veterans' organization that has so far been the largest Republican-leaning 527 organization to weigh in on behalf of the Arizona Senator. Vets for Freedom will start a $1.5 million ad buy this month that will target Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, the Washington Post's Michael Shear writes, in an effort to convince voters the war in Iraq is being won. The message: "We need to finish the job." Expect that mantra to repeat itself over the next few months, as it's one that plays heavily into McCain's message.

-- The Vets for Freedom ad mentions neither McCain nor Obama, but a different ad that began over the weekend takes on Obama directly over energy costs, tagging Obama as "just the party line." The $3 million ad buy comes not from a 527 organization, but from the Republican National Committee, which launched its first buy of the year, targeting Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Politico's Mike Allen reports. It's not a small expenditure, and it's not something that national Democrats can do much about. With $53.5 million in the bank as of May 31, the RNC can easily outspend the DNC, which maintains a puny $3.9 million on hand. Yes, Obama will outspend McCain, but that isn't the full financial story.

-- In House and Senate contests, any Washington strategist advising a challenger or an incumbent will urge that the candidate make their race about the other guy. Focus on the opponent's weaknesses, construe his arguments as either too far left or too far right, and put doubts about his or her ability to do the job in voters' minds. This presidential contest has aspects of that -- Obama questioned over his authenticity after seeming reversals on Iraq, public financing, et cetera, and McCain for his position changes on off-shore drilling and even his own campaign finance law. Both candidates will say the phrase "my opponent" before launching a tirade many times over the coming months.

-- But of course this race has to be about more than just the other guy, and both Obama and McCain have to watch out for their own reputations. John Kerry found out how important protecting the brand is, after a 527 organization slammed his service in Vietnam, service that he had made an integral building block for his race. This time, it's a contest between a decorated veteran with a long record of service and sacrifice against a fresh face ready to bring change. Those brands are what got both candidates where they are today, and they are alternately the candidates' biggest biographical strengths and biggest strategic weaknesses. Should the brands collapse, the campaigns will, too.

-- The real conclusion from the last two weeks: If this election is about the war in Iraq, John McCain has a serious shot at the win. With an argument last week over retired General Wes Clark's comments on McCain's service as a qualification to be president, and with this weekend being dominated by questions of whether Obama is reneging on one of his most fundamental campaign promises, the discussion still centers on Iraq, and McCain trails Obama by six points in the latest RCP Average, a margin unchanged by more than a point or two in roughly the past month.

-- So where do those numbers move when the battle is about the economy? Given that gas prices are huge and that the U.S. economy has lost jobs six months in a row, the focus is almost certain to turn there eventually, and we may find an answer sooner rather than later. Both candidates are going to spend this week on the economy, the New York Times' Adam Nagourney writes, and both candidates face challenges ahead. McCain admits he's not an expert, while Obama had trouble connecting with working class voters who will be paying the most attention to candidates' messages on economic issues.

-- Unrest Of The Day: Conservatives played a diminished role in the Republican primaries, with key activist groups divided between several candidates. But in the general, conservatives will play an outsized role, to the benefit or detriment of McCain's campaign. They have already won concessions from McCain, urging him to speak more to social issues on which they agree, but they're not done yet. Conservatives are planning an assault on the Republican platform at the convention, the Post's Shear writes on the front page today, which will have to be rewritten to cut out President Bush's name. Their imprint, and the subsequent disagreements with their presidential nominee, could be an embarrassment for McCain come November.

-- Today On The Trail: Both candidates start focusing on the economy today, with Obama holding an economic security discussion in Charlotte, North Carolina, and McCain stopping off at the Denver Center for the Performing Arts. Also in Denver today, work crews hired by the Democratic National Committee will begin work on the Pepsi Center, which will be renovated in the just more than month and a half before the convention begins on August 24. The convention is behind fundraising schedule and over budget, the New York Times reported this weekend, making at least a few Democrats nervous.