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Strategy Memo: Mythbusters

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Good Wednesday morning. As Brett Favre files for reinstatement in the NFL, we have to wonder, isn't that a little like picking Bob Graham, or even the oft-mentioned Sam Nunn, as a vice presidential hopeful? Here's what Washington is watching today:

-- The Senate takes up a media shield law and will attempt an early cloture vote this morning. Next, the upper chamber will take up a multi-part bill that deals with jobs, energy and disaster relief. Republicans in the Senate have been holding up votes on any measure that is not energy-related, and it remains to be seen how much Democrats can actually get done this week. The House is considering other bills today. President Bush has a Cabinet meeting scheduled for today before signing a bill to reduce tuberculosis and malaria around the globe.

-- Despite our excitement yesterday, no vice presidential selections were forthcoming, and frankly, we're not surprised. Getting everyone all amped up for nothing is a habit of campaign flacks. Still, it's interesting to hear that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine canceled an appearance at a Baltimore fundraiser, per PolitickerMD. Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, Washington Mayor Adrian Fenty and Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley are still slated to show up at the event benefiting the state Democratic Party, but the guy on the extraordinarily short list has pulled out.

-- That anything would be decided yesterday was a giant, and frustrating, myth. Then again, this campaign, with its preponderance of echo-chamber blogs, cable news networks and pundits, has been a series of myths that should be dismissed if people think about it. Let's take a moment to dispel some of those myths:

-- Nothing will happen during the Olympics. One network will spread coverage over 3,600 hours on five or six stations, all but one of them on cable. But no one cares about the badminton finals (Is badminton still an Olympic sport?), and even with MSNBC out of commission, Fox News and CNN will be looking for even more political news. News will not cease to exist for three weeks, and as Time's Mark Halperin points out, any presidential news will get some automatic sports metaphor tie-in. Barack Obama will probably be on vacation for a brief period of time during the Olympics, and John McCain could take a few days off as well, but news will by no means be canceled.

-- The electoral map will seriously change this year. Obama and McCain are focusing on the same seventeen or so states that every presidential contender does over the past few decades. McCain, in the course of a Western swing, has hit Colorado twice in four days; Obama keeps going back to Michigan; and today both candidates will be in Missouri for fundraising and campaigning, as the Kansas City Star crows. McCain is spending some time in California, but it's only for fundraising, and Obama is making a real play for Virginia at the moment. Then again, that could change as the race opens up.

-- McCain will lose because he's a Republican. Yes, the Republican brand is terrible this year, and having the longest-serving elected official in the party get indicted on seven criminal counts is no aid to the brand. In fact, Ted Stevens' indictment could be a big setback for down-ballot Republicans, the Post's Paul Kane and Chris Cillizza write. But McCain is not a typical Republican, no matter which way either campaign tries to portray his record; to independent voters, it's not about the votes McCain has taken, it's about their image of him as a maverick. McCain, almost alone, can still win with an "R" after his name.

-- Barack Obama is running away with the race. The media coverage is obsessive, and the candidate himself says he's "become a symbol of the possibility of America returning to our best traditions," per the Post's Jonathan Weisman. As the modern-day Icarus soars toward the sun, he'd better watch those waxy wings. 200,000 Berliners can't vote, and among the folks who can, Obama maintains a slim 2.5-point edge, per the latest RCP National Average. John McCain is by no means out of the race just yet, and there's plenty of time to go.

-- Photos Of The Day: A picture is worth a thousand words, especially if it's of John Kerry and a bunch of young drunkards. The Massachusetts Senator, facing re-election this year against only minor opposition after what could have been a top challenger couldn't muster the proper number of signaures, was on Nantucket this weekend when he ran into a fun time. His office says the Senator stopped as college-aged kids snapped photos with him, then walked away with his friends. Still, when one's photo shows up on TMZ.com, one's press flack is guaranteed to have a bad day.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama is in Springfield, Missouri this morning for a town hall meeting on economic security. Later he'll head to the Missouri University of Science and Technology, in Rolla, for a similar event. This evening, the campaign has a barbeque planned in Union, a rural town outside of St. Louis. McCain will visit a small business in Aurora, Colorado, his second day in the state, before heading to Kansas City this evening for a fundraiser.

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