Strategy Memo: Money Talks
Good Wednesday morning. Apologies for the sluggish post this morning, but staying up until 1:30 a.m. to watch an All Star game will do that. Dan Uggla, call your agent; no manager's going to put you in the game next year. Here's what Washington, home of 0-for-3 All Star Christian Guzman, is watching this morning:
-- The Senate meets this morning to continue debate over a measure to curb the spread of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. The House will vote on intelligence authorization and on a river designation in Massachusetts that has become a surprising flashpoint against House Financial Services Committee chairman Barney Frank. Frank will spend part of his day taking testimony from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, who spends his second day on the Hill explaining economic woes. President Bush will meet with the president of Burkina Faso before hosting a tee ball game and a social dinner for Major League Baseball. We can only assume attendees are sleeping in after such a long game last night.
-- The sixteenth day of every third month is our favorite here at Politics Nation, as Federal Election Commission reports came pouring in before the deadline last night. The overwhelming impression one gets: Democrats once again far outraised Republicans, including some challengers who are nowhere near the DCCC's list of top recruits. We'll have a comprehensive breakdown of the top races from around the country over the next few days, but when even Scott Harper, a businessman running against five-term Republican Judy Biggert in Illinois, outraises his incumbent opponent, it's safe to assume a bad quarter for the GOP.
-- Presidential campaigns, along with the various party committees that help House and Senate candidates, are required to file their FEC reports on the 20th of every month, so treasurers have an additional few days to scrape together details. Still, those numbers usually leak early. We know John McCain raised $22 million in June, while the Republican National Committee ended the month with $68 million in the bank. But while Barack Obama's campaign has been the first to trumpet good fundraising numbers, we still don't know what they've raised. Campaign insiders have said only the haul will be more than $30 million for June. But wasn't that supposed to be Obama's $100 million month?
-- McCain's money has come more from larger bundlers than Obama's has, and while the Illinois senator is shunning lobbyist money, McCain is doing no such thing. About a dozen of McCain bundlers who have raised more than $500,000 to his campaign are lobbyists, the New York Times reports, though that shouldn't be a surprise. Take a look at any incumbent member of Congress and you'll find top donors tend to be those inclined to lobby. Perhaps the most surprising is that the paper of record cites "more than 100" of McCain's top bundlers who were either "Pioneers" or "Rangers" for President Bush. That's out of the 548 bundlers the Bush-Cheney campaign had in 2004, not a great ratio to pass on to the next GOP nominee.
-- In the end, McCain's money comes from a smaller number of people. His campaign bundlers have brought in 53% of the campaign's total, USA Today's Fredereka Schouten reports, while Obama's bundlers have provided just 17% of his campaign's cash. 91% of Obama's donations are coming in pieces smaller than $100. But there's a danger in relying on nontraditional sources of cash, and Obama's fundraising in August will foretell how much future candidates can rely on such small amounts: Everyone goes on vacation and tunes out in August, traditionally the weakest month for political fundraising, and Obama's going to have to find a way to get vacationers to cough up some dough.
-- A New York Times/CBS News poll out today shows mixed news for the Obama coalition. He's leading McCain by a 45%-39% margin, though McCain actually leads among white voters by a nine-point margin, while Obama has the edge among black voters, 89%-2%, and among Hispanic voters, 62%-23%. 31% of respondents, including 47% of black respondents, said they thought Obama's election would improve race relations in the country, while 17% said he would make the racial situation worse, generally favorable news. But for the first time, a majority of voters -- 51% -- think Obama is saying what he thinks people want to hear, while 43% think he's saying what he believes. For a candidate whose message is based on optimism and a new kind of politics, that could prove dangerous in the future.
-- What matters most? Both surveys agree, while McCain and Obama babble on about Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, 38% say the economy is what they're most concerned about, along with 14% who say oil and gas prices. Just 10% named war as what concerned them most, according to the Times/CBS survey. That's bad news for McCain; 61% of respondents think the Republican would continue President Bush's economic policies, and just 20% of Americans approve of Bush's handling of the economy, while 71% disapprove.
-- Vacation Of The Day: Forget Cancun or Baja, the place to be in July and August is a tour bus driving through Crawford, Texas. That's where DNC chief Howard Dean will hit the trail, registering voters for Barack Obama, the AP's Nedra Pickler writes. Dean will travel through the recently Republican South, from Crawford to Austin to New Orleans, Hattiesburg and Jackson, with additional stops in Louisiana, North Carolina and Georgia scheduled. In August, Dean's bus will take him to the Midwest, with stops along the Rust Belt, before heading to the Democratic convention on August 25. One worry, though: Are gas costs alone going to eat up the $4 million national Democrats have left in the bank?
-- Today On The Trail: McCain lands in Cincinnati this morning and has a brief welcome ceremony scheduled for the airport. He will address the NAACP's national convention an hour later, followed by a fundraising event in Nebraska where couples will pay up to $50,000 for the opportunity to hobnob. Obama will join Indiana Senator Evan Bayh and former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, for a summit on 21st Century threats.



