Strategy Memo: It's The Iraq, Stupid
Good Monday morning. Roll Call's annual Congressional baseball game coming on Thursday, which means this week's posts may be infused with a little more humor than normal. The average member of Congress is not the most in-shape person in the world, and the sight of them running, fielding and sliding is enough to make anyone chortle. Here's what Washington watches this morning:
-- The House is dealing with several bills under suspension this afternoon, while the Senate is starting work on a bill to combat AIDS around the globe. President Bush will make a brief appearance in the Rose Garden today to mark the tenth anniversary of the International Religious Freedom Act, while Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, after a busy weekend on the economic front, addresses the Detroit Economic Club in Dearborn, Michigan. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Steve Preston is in Kansas City to give a speech to the National Association of Counties.
-- The big administration newsmaker over the weekend was Treasury Secretary Henry Paulsen, who confirmed the government would make available the cash to help Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the nation's two largest mortgage lenders, survive the current housing crisis. Too, Paulsen said he would push Congress to buy stock in both companies, MarketWatch reported, and give them a higher credit line, in exchange for a more collaborative role played by the Federal Reserve. The move sent the dollar higher after four days of decline, Bloomberg notes, though it's another indication that the housing market teeters on the brink of implosion.
-- And yet both presidential candidates are spending their time on another issue. After a week in which his commitment to pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq was questioned, Barack Obama used Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's call for a timetable for withdrawal as the basis for reasserting his own commitment to get U.S. troops out of the country. In a New York Times op-ed, Obama calls for redeploying troops out of Iraq and into Afghanistan and a renewed diplomatic surge that includes $2 billion to Iraqi refugees and seeks the renewed cooperation of neighboring countries.
-- Polls repeatedly show Obama and John McCain running neck and neck on the war in Iraq, while Obama usually has wide leads over McCain when it comes to handling the economy, or gas prices, or a host of other issues that are also close to the top of the American consciousness. So why would he continue to talk about McCain's best issue when he could instead shift the debate to his own turf? The war in Iraq is either a McCain strength that Obama needs to undercut, or an Obama weakness on which he has an opportunity to grow. Take the war away from McCain and he has little else going for him. But focus on Iraq while trying to build up Obama and, if it happens too slowly, they put the ball squarely in the Republican's court.
-- Meanwhile, the New Yorker made serious news this weekend, first with a long profile of Obama and his Chicago days, and second with a cover depicting Obama and wife Michelle in the Oval Office, complete with just about every stereotype conservatives have tried to make stick, including a flag in the fire place, Osama bin Laden on the wall and tribal garb and a fist bump (Why Michelle has a big gun, though, we just don't know). The LA Times writes both campaigns called the image "tasteless and offensive," though in their weekly press release (Which approximately twelve people read) the New Yorker points out that it's meant to satirize "the use of scare tactics and misinformation in the presidential election to derail Barack Obama's campaign."
-- In any close election contest, if the race becomes about one candidate, that candidate generally loses. But with two such promising brands in McCain and Obama, this race could prove the opposite. Both candidates are seen favorably by a huge swath of the electorate at a time when virtually everything else associated with Washington has a negative rating. Still, the New Yorker cover should strike a nerve with the Obama team. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis told Politics Nation a while back that a presidential campaign can make a mistake in thinking their candidate is known after the primaries, but that they really aren't. Lots of people don't know Obama yet, and if any one of those bits of misinformation is someone's first impression, Obama could face trouble.
-- McCain is in San Diego today to address a key Hispanic group, the National Council of La Raza, at their annual convention, marking the third big-name Hispanic organization he's addressed in the last few weeks. Polls still show Obama leading by a wide margin among the group, which in recent years has swung decidedly more Democratic. But McCain, as the Associated Press writes, will make his most overt claim on Hispanic voters, saying his backing of comprehensive immigration reform, which at one point put his campaign on the brink of defeat, makes him the candidate willing to do what's best for Hispanics. President Bush's strong performances among Hispanics were crucial to his 2000 and 2004 campaigns, and McCain has to agree with Obama's assessment, made the day earlier, of the role the demographic will play this year: "Make no mistake about it: The Latino community holds this election in your hands," the Democrat said.
-- Inconvenient Truth Of The Day: Barack Obama does not take money from lobbyists. Neither, according to a new policy, does the Democratic National Committee (Though with just $4 million on hand as of last month, you'd think they wouldn't be so picky). Forget the Democratic Congressional and Senatorial Campaign Committees, which still take lobbyist bucks, because they're not really associated with the presidential contest. But what about the Democratic National Convention Committee, where Obama will set the tone for the final eight-week sprint to the finish? Turns out the chief fundraiser, lawyer Steve Farber, is a top lobbyist in Denver whose firm has one of the fastest-growing Washington offices around, the New York Times writes today. Anything McCain's going to jump on? Fortunately for Obama's campaign, the top fundraiser for the convention committee is about as inside baseball as anything.
-- Today On The Trail: McCain is in San Diego, where he will address the National Council of La Raza before jetting off to Albuquerque for a fundraiser. Obama will be in Cincinnati, Ohio, this evening, where he will address the NAACP's annual convention. McCain will address the same convention tomorrow. Side note: This is the 99th annual NAACP convention. Anyone want to guess who next year's keynote speaker will be, win or lose?


