Strategy Memo: A Surge Of Questions
Good Wednesday morning. What's going on in Major League Baseball? The Tampa Bay Rays are in first place in late July, ahead of both the Yankees and the Red Sox; Chicago has two teams in first place; and in the NL West, the first place team doesn't have a winning record. As you chew on that -- and check out the newest edition to the RCP family, The Scorecard -- here is what Washington is watching today:
--The Senate will continue consideration today of S. 3268, the Stop Excessive Energy Speculation Act of 2008. The House is also in session, with the foreign affairs committee -- a little more than two weeks before the Olympics commence in Beijing -- holding hearings on continued Chinese repression. Pres. Bush is holding meetings at the Pentagon with Defense Secretary Robert Gates and the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
--We counted five times that CBS Evening News anchor Katie Couric asked Obama whether or not the troop surge in Iraq has helped reduce violence. He answered affirmatively, and has indicated that position in past speeches, but he continues to be asked it anyway. It's also a question the McCain campaign has been harping on the past few days.
--This is, of course, a no-win situation for Obama. If he says no, or some version of "no," McCain can jump on him for not recognizing the facts on the ground. If he says yes, as he has, McCain can say, as he has, that he had the correct judgment on the issue. Conversely, Obama can say, as he has, that he had the correct judgment in 2002, when he spoke up against the war while serving in the Illinois Senate.
--McCain has also recently used an argument against Obama that George H.W. Bush wouldn't use against Bill Clinton in 1992, Carl Cannon notes. McCain said Obama is "someone who has no military experience whatsoever." The statement is obviously true, and one Obama can't hit back on. As Wesley Clark found out, backlash ensues when one says that someone's experience in war -- especially John McCain's -- doesn't necessarily qualify them to be president.
--While on a conference call with reporters yesterday, New Mexico Rep. Heather Wilson possibly overreached when she said McCain could actually have troops pulled out of Iraq before Obama, not the other way around. That's one way to combat the news that two Iraqi officials, including Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, support a troop withdrawal in a similar timeframe as Obama. Wilson said that, unlike Obama, McCain would not be tied to a timetable, allowing him to remove troops before 16 months into his administration.
--Jonathan Martin reported that the McCain campaign later clarified Wilson's remarks, saying that the conditions on the ground will determine when troops are able to leave and that the commanders have said 16 months is not a likely timeframe for withdrawal.
--While both campaigns will continue to use Iraq as a winning issue for them, Mark Halperin lists the things McCain must do in order to win, including recognizing "that most Americans care more about the price at the pump, their mortgages, and their food and health care costs then about McCain's life story, prescience on the surge, or total number of trips made to Iraq."
--Question Of The Day: With Obama's tour of the Middle East earning him good reviews (and lots of press), should McCain have waited until later in the campaign -- when there would not be enough time for Obama to go -- to begin taunting the Illinois Senator for not visiting since 2006? While McCain can still say he's been to Iraq more times, Obama now can say he's been there more recently than McCain. Not to mention, the world has been watching Obama for the past week, while McCain was welcomed to Manchester, New Hampshire two nights ago by "just one reporter and one photographer."
--Today On The Trail: McCain is in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania before heading down to New Orleans tonight. McCain has been up by double-digits in the latest polls in Louisiana, while Obama holds a 7.7-point lead in RCP's average in Pennsylvania. Obama continues his tour of the Middle East; today he is in Israel.
--Kyle Trygstad


