A new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll shows Senator Frank Lautenberg leading his Republican rival, though the four-term incumbent remains well below the 50% mark.

Conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute, the poll surveyed 698 registered voters between 7/17-21 for a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. Lautenberg and Zimmer, a former member of Congress, were tested. The survey sample was made up of 42% Democratic voters, 25% Republican voters and 33% independents and others.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Lautenberg.....45 / 75 / 14 / 34
Zimmer............37 / 10 / 71 / 40

As we've mentioned before, New Jersey voters are notoriously fickle, and many don't decide until the week before Election Day. In recent years, those undecided voters have broken toward Democratic candidates, though every year at least some Republicans get excited for their prospects in the Garden State and spend some ill-advised money there.

With two open Republican-held House seats and Lautenberg's re-election bid this year, New Jersey could be a surprising sleeper state that benefits Democrats.