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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« FEC Second Quarter -- West Coast | Blog Home Page | FEC Second Quarter -- Illinois »

FEC Second Quarter -- Upper Midwest

Last quarter, we put Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri in the Northern Mississippi Valley, Wisconsin and Illinois in the Western Great Lakes and Michigan and Indiana in the Eastern Great Lakes.

After a competitive primary in Iowa, the state's Third District is likely not going to be competitive, while impending primaries in Missouri and Michigan have delayed FEC filings until later this week. So, we've lumped the three together to focus on top races in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Indiana, the Upper Midwest, and separated Illinois into its own category:

Minnesota 01: Mankato Democrat Tim Walz is popular in his district, and with $433,000 raised through the Second Quarter and $1.21 million in the bank, he's in as good a position as any freshman to keep his seat. An increasingly ugly Republican primary is only making matters better for Walz, as State Senator Dick Day continues an uphill battle against party-endorsed Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis. Davis raised $292,000 in the Second Quarter and ended with $377,000 in the bank, while Day raised just $11,000 and still has $45,000 on hand. The two will square off on September 9.

Minnesota 03: Republican Jim Ramstad's retirement paved the way for a strong Democratic shot at the suburban Minneapolis seat. Attorney Ashwin Madia was the surprising Democratic convention winner, and he's raised an impressive amount afterwards, with $693,000 pulled in and $738,000 on hand. But State Rep. Erik Paulsen is one of the best Republican challengers in the country, and having avoided a costly primary or convention, he's got a big financial advantage. Paulsen raised $621,000 in the Second Quarter and maintained $1.12 million in the bank.

Minnesota 06: Few Republican freshmen are as endangered as Michele Bachmann, whose St. Cloud-based district is more socially conservative than Ramstad's neighboring Third District. Bachmann has proven a strong fundraiser, though, with $378,000 pulled in last quarter and with $1.29 million in the bank. Former Blaine Mayor and state transportation commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg, a top Democratic recruit, has been slow to fundraise, pulling in $271,000 in the last three months and keeping $225,000 on hand. The DCCC has reserved $1.4 million in advertising time for Madia in Ramstad's seat, but there's a chance some of that money will target Bachmann as well.

Wisconsin 08: Paulsen isn't alone in the race for best Republican challenger. Most Hill Republicans will agree that former Wisconsin Assembly Speaker John Gard is near the top of that same list. Gard, running again for a Green Bay-based seat, raised $293,000 in the Second Quarter with $649,000 on hand. He lost in 2006 to Democrat Steve Kagen, who has invited some controversy in his first term, but still has a good amount of money; Kagen raised $289,000 last quarter and still has $927,000 on hand.

Indiana 02: Freshman Joe Donnelly has one of the more conservative voting records in the Democratic caucus, and his chances of keeping this northern Indiana district are mounting. Donnelly raised $248,000 in the Second Quarter and had $993,000 on hand, while his Republican challenger, businessman Luke Puckett, has yet to even file his report (A pre-primary report for Puckett showed he'd raised just $33,000 and given himself $150,000). Puckett is one of the GOP challengers headed to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and if he can make oil exploration an issue, he may stay competitive.

Indiana 09: For the fourth time in four elections, Republican Mike Sodrel will face Democrat Baron Hill in this Southeast Indiana district. Hill, the current incumbent, won in 2002 and 2006, while Sodrel served a single term in 2004. Hill raised $295,000 through the Second Quarter and had $1.16 million in the bank, while Sodrel had $193,000 raised in the past three months for a war chest of $379,000. Sodrel may contribute some of his own money to his effort, though, and John McCain is likely to win the district, where President Bush took a nineteen-point victory in 2004, giving Republicans an outside shot at taking back the seat.