FEC Second Quarter -- The Northeast
It's that magical time of year when Federal Election Commission reports are due, offering a key window into who may be vulnerable, and which challengers are for real. We wanted to reverse our order from the First Quarter and start with Michigan and Indiana, but since Michigan's primaries are August 5, Second Quarter reports aren't due in the Wolverine State for another few days.
So it's back to the Northeast, where plenty of hot races are just getting started. To check out our early take on contests in New York, New Hampshire and Connecticut, click here. While we wish there were more contests, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont don't have much to offer this year. Without further ado, the Second Quarter reports:
-- New Hampshire 01: Republicans Jeb Bradley and John Stephen continue to fight it out in advance of the September primary for the right to take on freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in November. But Shea-Porter, who has refused DCCC offers to make her a member of the Frontline program for endangered Democrats, isn't going to make it easy for either of them. She raised $260,000 in the Second Quarter and still has $749,000 in the bank. That's a lot more than the $99,000 Bradley raised or the $137,000 that Stephen has around, and their smaller warchests, of $475,000 and $257,000, will be further depleted once the primary is over. The latest poll out of the Granite State shows Shea-Porter leading Stephen but losing to Bradley, the foe she narrowly defeated in 2006.
-- New York 13: In the last three months, this race went from a contest between incumbent Rep. Vito Fossella and New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia to a battle between Democratic city councilmember Mike McMahon and 2006 nominee Steve Harrison, both Democrats, and no real Republican, after Fossella's arrest on drunken driving charges and subsequent retirement. McMahon raised an impressive $497,000 in the first few months since getting in the race, retaining $471,000, while Harrison raised $34,000 and has $63,000 left over. Democrats made a big ad reservation in the seat, but without a viable Republican challenger, they probably won't have to spend it.
-- New York 20: A new addition to the list, freshman Democratic Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand has become a stunningly prolific fundraiser -- she's raised more than $3.6 million this cycle after spending $2.6 million to oust Rep. John Sweeney in 2006 -- but her opponent, Republican official Sandy Treadwell, has money of his own and he isn't afraid to spend it. From April through the end of June, Treadwell had raised $111,000 and given himself $948,000. He ended the period with $1.27 million in the bank. That's a lot, but he'll need more to compete with Gillibrand, who has stockpiled $2.8 million through the same period.
-- New York 25: Republican Rep. Jim Walsh's retirement left 2006 Democratic nominee Dan Maffei, who came within 3,400 votes of beating Walsh, the prohibitive favorite in the Syracuse-based seat. And Maffei is already fundraising like an incumbent, raising $473,000 through the Second Quarter and retaining $961,000. His opponent, former Onondaga County Legislator Dale Sweetland, raised $134,000 and kept $107,000 in the bank. Maffei is already running television ads, making him the favorite to steal another seat for Democrats.
-- New York 26: Rep. Tom Reynolds disappointed fellow Republicans by deciding to step down after this year, but a late and divisive Democratic primary could help the GOP keep a seat. National Democrats favor Iraq war veteran Jon Powers, who raised $272,000 in the Second Quarter to add to his already impressive haul. He finished the period with $489,000 cash on hand. Attorney Alice Kryzan pulled in $69,000 and still has $247,000 in the bank, while 2004 and 2006 nominee Jack Davis, the plaintiff who just got the Millionaire's Amendment overturned, hasn't raised a dime since kicking off his campaign but loaned himself $35,000. Businessman Chris Lee has the Republican field to himself for now, and has raised $351,000 in his first quarter. Added to a $320,000 loan and Lee has $636,000 in the bank, a nice head start especially if Democrats are forced to deplete their warchests.
-- Connecticut 02: Another freshman Democrat, Rep. Joe Courtney, is still building an impressive cash advantage over a Republican once thought to be among the party's best recruits. Courtney raised $327,000 between April 1 and June 30, bringing his cash on hand total to $1.4 million. His opponent, retired Naval officer Sean Sullivan, turned in another disappointing quarter, with $89,000 raised and $155,000 cash on hand. Republicans who were once touting Sullivan as a top prospect are now mum on his potential in November.
-- Connecticut 04: Perpetually targeted Rep. Chris Shays is one of an increasingly small handful of Republicans who represents a district Al Gore and John Kerry both won against President Bush. He's survived the last four years by winning re-election with just 52%, in 2004, and 51%, in 2006. But he always raises big bucks, pulling in $717,000 in the Second Quarter and keeping just shy of $1.7 million on hand. His Democratic opponent, Greenwich Democratic Party chairman Jim Himes, raised a similar amount, $698,000, and still has $1.44 million in the bank. National Democrats just reserved nearly $700,000 in advertising for Himes, an amount House Republicans are unlikely to match, making this one a race to watch.


