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« FEC Second Quarter -- Dust Bowl | Blog Home Page | Strategy Memo: Cash Money »

FEC Second Quarter -- Rocky Mountains

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The Mountain West is the emerging battleground for both parties, especially as each taps more into voters' more libertarian sensibilities. And there is no shortage of races about which to get excited along the nation's highest mountain range. Click here for our First Quarter take on the hot races, and take a look at how those races are developing:

New Mexico 01: Both parties got the nominees they wanted in Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, the Republican, and former city councilmember Martin Heinrich, the Democrat running in this Albuquerque-based seat. White pulled in $459,000 in the Second Quarter, aided by a fundraiser with President Bush, and has $634,000 in the bank. After a more contentious primary, Heinrich, who outraised White with $576,000 pulled in, trails the Republican with $354,000 on hand. Democrats plan to spend money here to capture a seat that has eluded them in recent years, and Republicans could follow suit.

New Mexico 02: Two tough primaries produced nominees for November who will face off in a Republican-leaning open seat that both parties will make competitive. Restaurant entrepreneur Ed Tinsley, the Republican winner, raised $274,000 through the quarter and had $112,000 left over at the end of June, while former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague, the Democratic nominee, raised $396,000 and still had $75,000 left over. Teauge starts at a geographical disadvantage; his base is in the extreme eastern part of the district, while Tinsley is from Las Cruces, the population center. But the DCCC has reserved advertising time here, too, making it a potential pickup.

Colorado 02: A heavily Democratic seat left open by Rep. Mark Udall, who is running for Senate, means Democratic candidates are fighting an expensive battle to replace him in Congress. State Senator Joan Fitz-Gerald is the prohibitive favorite, and she raised $422,000 through the Second Quarter, with almost $711,000 in the bank ahead of the state's August 12 primary. Businessman Jared Polis has poured millions into his own race, raising $3.18 million in the Second Quarter thanks to a $3.07 million donation from his own checkbook. He still has $866,000 on hand. And environmental activist Will Shafroth will complicate the picture; he raised $280,000 in the last three months and still has $735,000 on hand. The winner will face only token Republican opposition in the Fall.

Colorado 04: Like Jean Schmidt in Ohio, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave's tenure in Congress has been filled with controversy and close calls. She won just 46% of the vote in 2006, the lowest percentage of any winner that year. This time around, she will face former Congressional aide Betsy Markey, who spent last quarter outraising the three-term incumbent. Musgrave pulled in $280,000 last quarter to retain $1.15 million on hand, while Markey raised $390,000 to keep $580,000 in the bank. Last year, a third-party candidate took 11%. This year, it's just a Markey-Musgrave head to head, which could spell trouble for the incumbent.

Colorado 05: The Second District is a Democratic free-for-all, and the Fifth is the same for Republicans. Freshman Doug Lamborn pulled in $116,000 to end the quarter with $237,000 left over, including $47,500 in debt, while two of his 2006 primary opponents nip at his heals. Former congressional aide Jeff Crank raised $102,000 and still has $105,000 to spend, while retired Air Force Major General Bentley Rayburn raised $61,000 and still has $62,000 in the bank. The district is home to Focus on the Family and the Air Force Academy, making the winner of the GOP primary the heavy favorite over retired Air Force officer Hal Bidlack, the likely Democratic nominee who finished the quarter with $77,000 on hand.

Wyoming At-Large: Rep. Barbara Cubin's decision to retire for medical reasons gave Republicans more optimism in their ability to keep a seat that came within 1,000 votes of flipping parties in 2006. Former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis and rancher Mark Gordon are the leading Republican candidates; Lummis raised $199,000 in the Second Quarter and still has $247,000 in advance of the August 19 primary, while Gordon has largely self-funded his campaign, pulling in $416,000, almost $350,000 from his own pocket ($349,999 to be exact, a dollar shy of tripping the Millionaire's Amendment) with $69,000 left on hand. 2006 Democratic nominee Gary Trauner raised $318,000 between April and June and finished with a whopping $702,000 on hand. Democrats think they have a shot here, but that Wyoming is a very Republican state in a presidential year makes their job harder.

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