FEC Second Quarter -- Ohio Valley
No state disappointed Democrats more in 2006 than Ohio. But this year, the party again thinks the Ohio Valley will be a big part of their gains. Check out what we wrote last quarter by clicking here, and join us on a tour from the Great Lakes to the mountains of West Virginia:
Ohio 01: In Cincinnati, Ken Griffey Jr.'s tenure with the Reds isn't the only thing in jeopardy this year. Republican Rep. Steve Chabot, who won a surprisingly close 52%-48% victory in 2006, could find himself in serious trouble come November as well. Chabot raised $305,000 in the Second Quarter, leaving $1.31 million in the bank, while his Democratic opponent, State House Minority Whip Steve Driehaus, raised $200,000 and retained $631,000 in the bank. Democrats are committed to winning the seat, reserving $928,000 in advertising time, and that alone could make for another close contest.
Ohio 02: Perpetual target Republican Jean Schmidt has faced four close elections in the three years she's been in Congress. This year, though she represents a seat that is likely to go easily for John McCain, she could face another one. Schmidt pulled in $301,000 in the Second Quarter, leaving her with just $393,000 on hand. Her 2006 opponent, physician Victoria Wulsin, lost by just 2,600 votes then and slightly outraised Schmidt this quarter, pulling in $309,000 and keeping $378,000 in reserve.
Ohio 07: We're not convinced retiring Rep. David Hobson's seat, south of Columbus, is really in play, but one Democratic poll showed a tight contest between State Senator Steve Austria, the Republican, and attorney Sharen Neuhardt, so we'll include it out of an abundance of caution. Austria raised an impressive $342,000 in the Second Quarter, leaving him with $361,000 on hand, while Neuhardt raised $190,000 with $108,000 left over. Democrats face a seriously uphill climb, though, in a district that voted for President Bush by a fourteen-point margin.
Ohio 15: Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce's retirement after a narrow win in 2006 has made her challenger that year, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, the overwhelming favorite in many people's minds. But don't count out Republican State Senator Steve Stivers, perhaps the GOP's top recruit this year. Kilroy raised $365,000 in the last three months, leaving her with $1.16 million in the bank. But Stivers outraised his Democratic rival, pulling in $429,000 in the last quarter while saving $880,000 in reserve. The DCCC has reserved $1.2 million in advertising time, and Republicans will likely respond, as this is shaping up to be one of the closest races in the country.
Ohio 16: The state's third Republican retirement, from Rep. Ralph Regula, left open a seat south of Cleveland and Akron that Democrats are also enthusiastic about capturing. The DCCC has reserved $1.3 million in advertising time to aid State Senator John Boccieri, who raised $391,000 on his own last quarter and kept $531,000 on hand. Republicans are happy with State Senator Kirk Schuring, who pulled in $330,000 and still has $349,000 in the bank. A poll for Schuring's campaign showed him leading by six points.
West Virginia 02: The Mountaineer State's lone Republican finds herself a Democratic target this year, but Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is used to tough races. The four-term member of Congress raised $388,000 in the Second Quarter, while keeping more than $1.23 million on hand for her fight against Democrat Anne Barth, a former aide to Senator Robert Byrd. Barth raised $295,000 and still has $353,000 on hand, and as a Red to Blue member, Barth has national Democrats' attention. Still, Moore Capito has beaten well-funded challengers before, and she remains the favorite, for now.



