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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Strategy Memo: The Old War | Blog Home Page | FEC Second Quarter -- Ohio Valley »

FEC Second Quarter -- Florida

The Sunshine State, like Pennsylvania, just has too many competitive races to be lumped in with any other state. Republicans may have a big advantage in the state legislature, and Charlie Crist remains a very popular governor, but House races are a different story. Click here to take a look at what we wrote about the state after the First Quarter, and here's our take on quarter number two:

Florida 08: One of the biggest surprises of 2006 came when Republican Rep. Ric Keller fended off a surprisingly tough challenge from marketing executive Charlie Stuart by a narrow 53%-46% margin. This year Stuart is back, and both candidates are raking in big money in preparation for another tough fight. Keller raised $267,000 in the Second Quarter, leaving him with $935,000 in the bank, while Stuart raised $224,000 and still has $415,000 left over. He faces serious primary fights from a number of well-funded Democrats, but Stuart is favored to win the primary. Stuart is not a member of the DCCC's Red to Blue program, but if Florida heats up for Democrats, look for the DCCC to take another gander at this central Florida district.

Florida 13: After a race so close that a special House committee had to get involved, Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan will face a rematch with Democrat Christine Jennings, both of whom spent tons of personal money to make this the most expensive House race in the country in 2006. Buchanan raised a whopping $510,000 in the past three months to leave him with $1.57 million in the bank, while Jennings, a banker, pulled in $379,000, not a shabby showing at all. The Democrat still has $579,000 in reserve to fight for the district, which lies just south of Tampa.

Florida 16: Even after his departure in 2006, then-Rep. Mark Foley's name was still on the ballot, leading to one of the cleverest slogans of the year: "Punch Foley for [State Rep. Joe] Negron," the GOP replacement. Negron's not running against freshman Democrat Tim Mahoney this year, but a number of other Republicans are, making him one of the most endangered Democrats in Congress. Mahoney raised $335,000 and still has $1.17 million after the Second Quarter. Republican Hal Valeche pulled in $62,000 but still has $829,000 to play with, while Tom Rooney, one of the heirs to the owners of the Pittsburgh Steelers, raised $90,000 and has $451,000 in the bank. State Rep. Gayle Harrell raised $98,000 during the last three months and retains $240,000 for her race. The state's August 26 primary, relatively late on the calendar, could be the only thing that saves Mahoney.

Florida 18: The first of three Cuban-majority districts is probably the safest for its Republican incumbent. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen holds much of Miami and south to the Keys, and she's got $1.89 million in the bank after raising $281,000 for the quarter. Her Democratic opponent, businesswoman Annette Taddeo, is no fundraising slouch, having pulled in $154,000 and keeping $457,000 on hand, thanks to a sizable personal loan, but she'll need a bigger bankroll for the race she faces in November. A poll out two weeks ago showed Ros-Lehtinen with a huge lead.

Florida 21: Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart's Cuban-majority district, just west of Miami, could be in a bit more trouble. Diaz-Ballart raised $474,000 and had $1.75 million on hand through Second Quarter, but his rival, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez, bettered that, with $601,000 pulled in through the end of June. Martinez has $1.08 million in the bank, along with designation as a DCCC Red to Blue candidate, and the same early July poll that showed Ros-Lehtinen ahead by such a wide margin shows Diaz-Balart leading by a skimpy four points.

Florida 24: One race we forgot to include in the First Quarter features Rep. Tom Feeney, the former Speaker of the Florida House, who has been accused of a closer relationship with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff than had previously been disclosed. Feeney hasn't been accused of wrongdoing, but his Daytona Beach-based seat might still be in play. Feeney's district gave President Bush a ten-point win in 2004, but the incumbent isn't taking his race lightly. He raised $421,000 in the Second Quartr and has $795,000 in the bank. He'll have to step up the pace, though. Not only did former Democratic State Rep. Suzanne Kosmas outraise him in the Second Quarter, pulling in $479,000, but she also has more in the bank than Feeney, with $936,000 on hand.

Florida 25: The other Diaz-Balart, Mario, finds himself in a similarly difficult position to that of his brother. Based farther west of Miami, Mario's Twenty-Fifth District stretches to the state's Gulf coast, and his opponent, Miami-Dade County Democratic Party chair Joe Garcia, is down just five points, per the poll of Hispanic-majority districts. Diaz-Balart raised $387,000 in the past quarter and retains $1.04 million on hand. Garcia outraised his opponent by more than $100,000, pulling in $493,000 and ending the quarter with $701,000 in the bank.