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« FEC Second Quarter -- Ohio Valley | Blog Home Page | FEC Second Quarter -- Rocky Mountains »

FEC Second Quarter -- Dust Bowl

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Part seven in our exhaustive look at the best potential races of the year takes us west to the golden fields of Nebraska south to the Rio Grande and the Gulf of Mexico. Check out our last post on the Dust Bowl here. We would include Kansas in this list, but thanks to an August primary, candidates there aren't required to file with the FEC until July 24. We'll update when that time comes.

The hot races we're watching from Texas north:

Texas 07: We weren't convinced this is a real race three months ago, and we still aren't convinced. But Republican Rep. John Culberson raised $394,000 in the second quarter and has $550,000 on hand, and that raises some alarm bells, given that his Democratic opponent, businessman Michael Skelly, has outpaced him by such a huge margin. Skelly raised $408,000 in the Second Quarter and has a whopping $1.05 million in the bank, making netroots Democrats pay attention. At the very least, Skelly will make life uncomfortable for Republicans in a district that gave a 28-point majority to President Bush.

Texas 10: Another heavily Republican district and another seat that might not really be in play, but Rep. Michael McCaul will face a minor celebrity in November in Larry Joe Doherty, host of the trial show "Texas Justice." McCaul raised $246,000 through June, keeping $489,000 on hand, while Doherty slightly outraised him with $247,000, keeping $260,000 on hand. That's enough to make us pay attention, especially when McCaul beat a Democrat by a 55%-40% margin in 2006. But the Republican remains the heavy favorite in a district John McCain will likely win easily in November.

Texas 22: Republicans have few better opportunities to reclaim a lost seat than in the suburban Houston Twenty Second District. Formerly Rep. Tom DeLay's seat, the GOP now has its eye on Democrat Nick Lampson, who barely beat a write-in candidate with a funny name. Lampson, who raised $261,000 over the last three months and has almost $1.15 million in the bank, will face a candidate hand-picked by Republicans in former Congressional aide Pete Olson. Olson outraised Lampson in the Second Quarter, with $354,000 pulled in, but after a contentious primary he's rebuilding his warchest and has just $261,000 on hand. The DCCC has reserved $1.1 million in advertising time to protect Lampson, but this year, against a good Republican candidate, that may not be enough.

Texas 23: Lampson isn't the only Democratic incumbent the party is worried about in Texas. Stretching from the El Paso suburbs to the San Antonio suburbs along the Rio Grande, Rep. Ciro Rodriguez beat a Republican in the Twenty Third District by just eight points in 2006. This quarter, he raised $332,000 and retained $1.19 million in the bank, while Republican Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson raised $262,000 and still had $280,000 in the bank. The DCCC has reserved ad time in the Twenty Third, as well, but they may not need to use it.

Nebraska 02: Yet another race where Democrats might not ordinarily have a chance makes our radar screen because of the possibility that Barack Obama could compete there. Incumbent Republican Lee Terry has made comments about his constituents' independent streak, calling them "Obama-Terry voters," and after his close 55%-45% win in 2006, he faces a repeat challenger in businessman Jim Esch. Terry raised $249,000 in the Second Quarter and still has $617,000 in the bank, while Esch, who faced a Democratic primary, raised $219,000 and has $141,000 in the bank. Terry got a boost when one of Esch's defeated Democratic rivals endorsed the Republican incumbent.

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