FEC Second Quarter -- Desert West
After a bit of a breather this morning, we're back with part nine of our increasingly comprehensive look at the best House races in the country. Three months ago, we took a look at Arizona and Nevada and found a number of good races (Click here for our first look). That's the way it is this quarter, too, in the Desert West:
Arizona 01: National Democrats see former State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick as one of their most promising prospects for a pickup, and she hasn't disappointed, raising $328,000 and keeping $668,000 on hand through the June 30 deadline. But she does have to get through a primary, where she will face television reporter Mary Kim Titla, who raised $54,000 and still has $57,000 in the bank, and Howard Shanker, who raised $33,000 and still has $21,000 lying around. The winner will face Republican nominee-in-waiting Sydney Hay, who raised $95,000 in the Second Quarter and kept $257,000 on hand.
Arizona 03: NRCC chairman Tom Cole once told Politics Nation that Rep. John Shadegg would be safe because he's a "paranoid incumbent." After a few quarters of strong fundraising from his Democratic opponent, Shadegg ramped up his own performance this quarter, pulling in a whopping $536,000 and keeping $1.35 million in reserve. Attorney Bob Lord had a good quarter, raising $233,000 and keeping $707,000 in hand, but unless national Democrats ride to the rescue, Shadegg looks like he will easily outspend Lord in the northern Phoenix district.
Arizona 05: A late Republican primary is good news for freshman Democrat Harry Mitchell, who is in enough trouble to merit defensive advertising reservations from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Mitchell raised $335,000 in the Second Quarter, keeping $1.37 million on hand to defend his Tempe- and Scottsdale-based district. In a five-way Republican primary, former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert leads the pack, with $163,000 raised through the last three months and with $521,000 on hand. Republicans Jim Ogsbury, who raised $50,000 and still has $323,000 in the bank, and Susan Bitter Smith, who pulled in $150,000 and retains $248,000 through the quarter, trail. Former State Rep. Laura Knaperek raised $34,000 betwen April and June and has $106,000 on hand, and State Rep. Mark Anderson brings up the rear with $29,000 raised and $69,000 on hand.
Arizona 08: State Senate President Tim Bee has given Republicans a roller coaster ride during his campaign. He was the hot prospect, then he was disappointing, and now he's hot enough again to merit special fundraising attention. Bee raised $390,000 in the Second Quarter and had $688,000 on hand after June 30, and, thanks to that special fundraising attention -- in the form of a visit from President Bush today -- he'll add an extra $500,000. But he's up against one of the best freshman Democratic fundraisers in the country in Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who raised $562,000 between April and June and had a huge $2.07 million in the bank, putting hers near the top of all Democratic warchests. The battle for the Tucson-based seat is going to get seriously expensive.
Nevada 02: Freshman Republican Dean Heller had one of the closer races in 2006, pulling out a five-point win with just 50% of the vote. Heller raised $224,000 in the Second Quarter and kept $984,000 in reserve in anticipation of another tough fight with his 2006 opponent, former state Democratic chairwoman Jill Derby. Derby actually outraised Heller, pulling in $293,000, but trails significantly with $353,000 in the bank. In 2006, Heller only outspent Derby by a $1.67 million to $1.59 million margin, meaning Derby will likely have to step up her fundraising to make the race competitive in a district that takes up more than 95% of the state's land.
Nevada 03: Centered around Henderson and stretching to the southern tip of the state, Republican Rep. Jon Porter has seen his share of competitive races, and this year he will face another one from a candidate who's already won the district. After the likely Democratic nominee surprised observers by pulling out of the race, replacement Dina Titus, a state senator who came just a few points from winning the governor's mansion, jumped in the race and had an explosive Second Quarter, raising $575,000 and keeping $553,000 in the bank. Porter is no fundraising slouch, having raised $419,000 during the quarter and keeping $1.27 million around. Democrats think the Third District is their best shot at a Silver State pickup, so watch for serious party involvement here.
That rounds out this week's look at Second Quarter FEC reports. Check back Monday for the final four installments, when we round up the West, the upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and hot Senate races.



