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« FEC Second Quarter -- Desert West | Blog Home Page | This Week On PN Radio »

Dems Make NC Play

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has for months talked up the prospects of a close race in North Carolina, where State Senator Kay Hagan is running against first term Republican Elizabeth Dole. Now, the committee is putting its money where its mouth is, reserving around $5 million in advertising time in the state, according to the Raleigh News & Observer.

That's a substantial sum in a state that didn't initially look like it would be competitive. Still, a new poll for Dole's campaign shows the incumbent leading by a wide margin, indicating Hagan may need the DSCC's help to pull back near even. The survey, conducted by The Tarrance Group, polled 550 likely voters between 7/7-9 for a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. Dole, Hagan and postal worker Christopher Cole, a Libertarian, were tested.

General Election Matchup
Dole................51
Hagan.............36
Cole..................6

Early polls showed the race much closer than the current 15-point gap, but Dole's advertising blitz in the past month looks like it paid off. After a series of advertisements Dole ran highlighting her work on immigration, the incumbent's lead ballooned from one within the margin of error to the current double-digit head start.

But Hagan had a strong fundraising quarter, and that's helped her seriously narrow the once-overwhelming cash advantage Dole had. Having raised $1.69 million from the end of the pre-primary period, on April 17, through the end of June, Dole spent $2.1 million and ended the quarter with $2.7 million on hand. Hagan raised $1.53 million in the same period and ended with $1.2 million in the bank.

The DSCC enjoys a substantial fundraising advantage over its Republican counterpart, though it's not as big a disparity as the two House committees. At the end of May, Democrats had a little less than a two-to-one advantage, with $38.5 million in the bank compared with $21.5 million for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. If Dole is in any further trouble, Republicans will be able to step in, but they'd certainly want to save their money for elsewhere.