Given two strong pickup opportunities, Democrats have already made Alaska a big priority, and a new survey shows the party is already leading two long-time Republican incumbents. For Republicans, the good news is that incumbent Rep. Don Young doesn't look likely to win his primary, and that Senator Ted Stevens remains more popular than his House colleague.

The survey, taken for DailyKos by non-partisan pollster Research 2000, polled 600 likely voters between 7/14-16 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Stevens and his Democratic opponent, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, were tested, as were Young and likely Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz, the former House Minority Leader. The party identification breakdown was 31% Republican, 20% Democratic and 49% independent or other.

General Election Matchups
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Begich........47 / 83 / 13 / 53 / 43 / 51
Stevens......45 / 7 / 81 / 38 / 50 / 40

Berkowitz....51 / 86 / 18 / 58 / 47 / 55
Young..........40 / 6 / 71 / 34 / 45 / 35

McCain.........51 / 10 / 82 / 48 / 54 / 48
Obama.........41 / 86 / 8 / 43 / 39 / 43

Both races look encouraging for Democrats, but the poll doesn't tell the whole story. In the Senate race, evidence of the state's overwhelming Republican tilt show through; Stevens wins 45% of the vote despite the fact that just 36% say they have a favorable opinion of the incumbent, while 61% have an unfavorable impression.

And in the House race, it looks increasingly possible that Young will not even be the Republican nominee. A strong challenge from Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell, a fellow Republican, could deprive Democrats of an ethically-wounded foe in November. Only 37% see Young favorably, while 61% view him unfavorably.

Berkowitz and Begich are viewed much more positively, both with 52% of the state seeing them in a favorable light. Just 29% see Berkowitz unfavorably, while only 27% said the same about Begich. Still, the narrowness of both races that feature popular challengers to unpopular incumbents demonstrates that Democrats have their work cut out for them.