With the retirement of Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate who represents parts of increasingly Democratic suburban Washington in Virginia, the GOP knew it would have trouble holding the seat. A new poll conducted for the Democratic nominee, though, suggests the seat is almost out of reach already.

The poll, conducted for Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman Gerry Connolly by Lake Research Partners, surveyed 500 registered voters between 7/10-14 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Connolly, businessman Keith Fimian, Davis' hand-picked successor, and Green Party candidate Joe Oddo were tested.

General Election Matchup
Connolly.......52
Fimian...........21
Oddo..............2

The district, which encompasses most of Fairfax and Prince William Counties, has been trending Democratic along with the rest of Northern Virginia, which has seen a big population influx in recent years (Anyone from the Washington area will understand why Davis is sometimes jokingly referred to as "R-Orange Line"). Having given President Bush a seven-point margin in 2000, district residents gave him just a 2,000-vote win in 2004. Against an underfunded rival last year, Davis won with just 55%.

The district is affluent, with a median income of more than $80,000 thanks to the plethora of government contractors, and well-educated, and moderate voters who accepted the seven-term Davis, elected before they moved in, might not be so inclined towards a new Republican.

Fortunately for Republicans, their candidate has a massive cash advantage that may prove a mitigating factor. Fimian has more than $1 million in the bank, while Connolly only has $275,000 after a bruising primary against a former member of Congress and other Democrats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved $1.3 million in advertising time here to aid Connolly, but with a strong fundraising quarter and more polls like these, he may not need the help.

Republicans have a seriously uphill climb in what increasingly looks like one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities in the country. Fimian is virtually unknown in the district, meaning his numbers will go up once he broadcasts his case to voters, but with a thirty-point deficit and an opponent over the magic 50% mark, it will be difficult for him to hold Davis' seat for Republicans.