Strategy Memo: Speed Of Sound
It's Tuesday morning, June 3, 149 days since Iowa voters made the cold trek to their caucus sites. Now, exactly five months later, the last two sets of voters head to the polls. Here's what a campaign-weary Washington is watching today:
-- The Senate continues work on the Lieberman-Warner climate change bill this morning, and will adjourn briefly this afternoon for this year's official Senate photograph. Sadly, the chamber's two most senior members will not be in the photo; Ted Kennedy is recuperating from successful brain surgery yesterday, and Robert Byrd is in the hospital dealing with a high fever. On the other sie of the Capitol, the House returns from recess to take up bills on public lands, the Government Accountability Office, the protection of data at federal agencies and the amount of food the federal government donates, an amount which has dropped sharply as prices have risen. President Bush meets with the NCAA champion Kansas Jayhawks, while Condoleezza Rice meets with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in what could be his final trip to the states.
-- It ain't over 'til the Montanans and South Dakotans get their vote. The final two of sixty-one contests will happen today, and when polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern in South Dakota and 10 p.m. Eastern in Montana, the final 31 pledged delegates of the contest will be awarded. All three candidates have speeches planned for this evening, and the tones they take will be determined by whether Obama can pick up enough super delegates before polls close to actually claim victory. By his campaign's count, Obama is just 38.5 delegates short of a majority. If he can pick up twenty or so super delegates by the time polls close tonight, along with half the South Dakota and Montana pledged delegates, he can declare victory at an evening rally at the Xcel Center in Minneapolis.
-- Obama is making a concerted effort to get those super delegates on board, and quickly, as the New York Times' Adam Nagourney and others report this morning. House Majority Whip James Clyburn, who has long maintained his neutrality, leaked word of his endorsement last night after telling reporters he would announce at 11 a.m. this morning, and his appearance on the Today Show is likely designed to push even more supers to make up their minds today, and the numbers are slowly rolling in. Another Michigan delegate and a Missouri State Representative who holds a super delegate vote have already announced by press time, and more are expected this morning.
-- Then again, nothing is assured. Clinton has spent most of her time stumping in South Dakota rather than Montana, and a new poll shows that may have paid off. There aren't enough surveys to establish an RCP Average for either state, but the two results that are available are about as contradictory as possible. In South Dakota, an old survey has Obama leading by 12, while a new American Research Group poll has Clinton up by a whopping 26. One has to imagine, though, with the New York Senator spending her evening in the Empire State, that the campaign's internals have it much closer than that, and might even expect Obama to win.
-- In Montana, a Mason-Dixon survey from mid-May showed Obama leading by 17 points, while an ARG poll out over the weekend has the Illinois Senator up just four points. Conventional wisdom suggests that South Dakota is the better state for Clinton, while Obama is likely to blow her out in Montana. If all we've assumed is wrong, and if Clinton takes a big win and a small loss, that might delay any hopes some Democrats have had for ending the race a little under three months before the convention.
-- Even if Obama reaches the magic number -- just click your heels together and repeat "2,118" three times and it'll all be over -- Clinton is unlikely to end her campaign tonight. She told friends as much over the weekend, Marc Ambinder reports, and her speech tonight, at which newly former staffers will gather with colleagues for a final official time, is going to be a celebration of the campaign that was, not the morbid concession speech that some might expect. Interestingly, though, both Clinton and Obama will be in Washington on Wednesday, making reporters jam into the Senate galleries yet again to witness the awkward encounter. Might there be another, more formal encounter in the works?
-- Hedge Of The Day: Looking to stem rumors of her impending exit, though, Clinton is putting on a brave face for supporters. Top adviser Harold Ickes told a conference call of top donors yesterday that Clinton has no plans to drop out and that the race will go on. State finance committees are making their feelings known as well. "The automatic delegates can change their mind up until their vote at the convention, and that is why this nominating process must be resolved in August, and no earlier," says a letter from the Illinois finance committee, per Ben Smith. Bravado or realism? No one will know until later this week, when Clinton will make her immediate and longer-term future known.
-- Today On The Trail: As most election days are, it's a slow one on the trail. South Dakota polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern, and Montana polls close an hour later. Clinton's one public event will be an evening rally at Baruch College in New York City, which will take place before results are in. Obama, too, will speak before polls close, rallying the troops at the Xcel Center in St. Paul, Minnesota. John McCain will offer a speech and attend a rally this evening in Kenner, Louisiana.



