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Strategy Memo: Message Matters

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Good Monday morning. Along with Michael Phelps, who roiled swimming pool waters in Athens, remember the name Katie Hoff. Both swimmers shattered world records at Olympic trials yesterday, and both are going to become household names in August when the world heads to China. Here's what else Washington is watching today:

-- The Senate meets in pro forma session today, once again blocking President Bush's ability to make recess appointments during the July 4 recess. The House is out of session until next Tuesday. President Bush will host a tee ball game on the South Lawn today, while Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson begins a four-day trip to Europe and Moscow and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice ends her week-long swing to Germany and three countries in Asia. Meanwhile, Salman Rushdie is in Washington to discuss his latest book.

-- Out on the presidential campaign trail, the lines of attack are becoming more clear on one side, while on the other mixed messages threaten to undermine a key component of the message. Discipline has been lacking from John McCain's campaign; it's rare that the Republican drives the message of the day for more than a day at a time. But it's been spot-on for Barack Obama's campaign, which will help the Democrat drive the conversation to friendly, economic-based territory once November comes a little closer. Today, though, those roles are reversed, and how Obama responds could be key come the Fall.

-- Republicans are finally on the same page with regard to their Democratic foe. McCain and party leaders will cast him as a say-anything politician with little moral center, as the Washington Post's Michael Shear writes. From public financing, which Obama skipped out on, to NAFTA, on which he very clearly softened his image over the past month, and a number of other issues Obama has flip-flopped over, McCain and his fellow Republicans have material to use, and, McCain adviser Steve Schmidt told Shear, they intend to remind voters of Obama's imperfections on a daily basis.

-- That could prove an effective message against a candidate supposedly above partisanship; if the race comes down to a judgment on Obama's character, Republicans will do anything they can to raise questions about the perfection of that trait. That's dangerous for Obama; having been on his post-partisan pedestal for so long, any stumble and fall could be disastrous. No candidate can be perfect forever, and the longer Obama sets himself up as beyond partisanship, the more the first crack in the veneer could resonate with voters.

-- On the Democratic side, the thing Barack Obama most wants to avoid is making the contest about John McCain's military service. Obama, and other Democrats, have bent over backwards to praise the Arizonan as a hero whose service they honor. But they don't want to talk about that part of McCain's biography, the biggest advantage the Republican has. So it doesn't help the cause when retired General Wesley Clark asserts aloud that McCain's service as a prisoner of war doesn't make him ready to be president, as Politico's Ben Smith writes. True, Clark was responding to a direct question, but the fewer times McCain's military service is brought up by Democrats, the better.

-- It's a tiny example of an off-message surrogate, but Clark's comments gave McCain an opportunity to lash out at the Democratic Party. While Republicans are weak across the board, it could take a few stumbles on Obama's behalf to give McCain a real chance at taking the White House. But the Republican is setting himself up in the only manner he can: Obama may be the fresh face, but McCain is the safe choice in a challenging world. But while establishing his own credentials, he'll have to make the argument that Obama cannot be trusted.

-- Which is exactly what McCain has started to do, CNN reported yesterday. At a fundraiser in Louisville, Kentucky, where he was introduced by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, McCain had harsh words for his rival: "Senator Obama's word cannot be trusted," McCain said. As McCain sews the seeds of distrust surrounding the new kid on the block, Obama faces another conundrum: Fight back, and be painted as a typical politician. Play dumb and get Swift boated, something Obama's campaign has thus far been completely, and correctly, unwilling to do.

-- Trouble Of The Day: When Barack Obama opted out of public financing for his sprint to the general election, he cited outside Republican groups that would attack from the shadows. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Chris Van Hollen and his spokespeople frequently warn of an impending invasion of cash and slimy tactics from shady operatives. But, as Democrats hold a lead in cash in the bank, so do their allied independent 527 organizations, and those like them. In fact, as McClatchy's Steve Thomma writes, there isn't a Swift Boat Veterans for Truth equivalent this year, as a number of Republican businesses and operatives have declined to operate political arms. Remember Freedom's Watch? Aside from some press releases, their paid activity has been aimed at House races, not the presidential.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama begins his day in the battleground state of Missouri, where he will make the pilgrimage to Harry Truman's home town, Independence. Wife Michelle will stay behind in Chicago, where she will host a fundraiser this evening for Congressional candidates. McCain will make two stops in politically potent Pennsylvania, first touring an industrial design shop in Harrisburg, then heading to Pipersville, in the crucial suburban Philadelphia Bucks County, for a town hall meeting this afternoon.

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